Flood Forecast and Warning by Using Daily Data: A Case Study for the Upper-Ping, Chiang Mai

Abstract

In this paper, the flood forecast and warning system with 4 storage of tank model and theimplication of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) theory was developed specially for the simulation of flood inthe Upper-Ping basin, Chiang Mai. By solving the governing equations, a numerical model can be used topredict flood discharge in the future as a flood forecast and warning system. A simulation was conducted,using observed daily rainfall, evaporation, infiltration and flood discharge as input data. The numericalmodel was tested by comparison of the simulation results with the observed data. It was found that theresults of flood hydrograph from the simulation were compared well with the observed data. The ε andR² were used as the main criteria to judge whether the data fitted between the measured and simulateddata. It was found that these two values were greater than 0.95, indicating well fit and the model could beapplied for flood forecast and warning in the Upper-Ping basin, Chiang Mai.

Keywords : Flood Forecast and Warning / Extended Kalman Filter / Tank Model / Daily Data