Forecasting of Rainfall of Nakhonratchasima Province

Abstract

Rainfall is an important factor for agricultural cultivation. Therefore, a study past rainfall recordsusing statistical methods to forecast the rainfall will be essential for planning and setting policy inagricultural extension. The objective of this study is to forecast the rainfall of Nakhonratchasimaprovince in 2004-2005 and to compare three methods of forecasting. The methods areDecomposition method, Winters,s forecast method and Box-Jenkins method. Data, which gives thelowest, Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) will represent the most suitable method. Data used toforecast the rainfall in 2003 are taken from the past rainfall records of 1994-2002 in Nakhonratchasimaprovince. Results show that the Box-Jenkins method is the most suitable method. The forecastingvalues of total rainfall in 2004 and 2005 are 999 and 1,002 millimeters per year, respectively.