Probability of the Alertness Level of Elderly Drivers before an Accident Occurs
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Abstract
This research aims to develop a model to predict the alertness level of elderly motorcycle riders, focusing on those aged 45–65 in Riau Province, Indonesia. Accident statistics in Indonesia show that riders aged 50 and above are more prone to accidents. Data was collected by interviewing elderly motorcycle riders who had experienced accidents at the ages of 45-65 years. The total of respondents used in this study was 564. The analysis results indicated that elderly motorcycle riders are 43% likely to have a high level of alertness and 57% likely to have a low level of alertness. Four scenarios were conducted to determine the influence of each variable. The results showed that the highest level of alertness among elderly motorcycle riders was 46%. Thus, elderly motorcycle riders are likely to be prone to accidents. The findings of this research indicate that the highest alertness level among elderly drivers is below 50%, thus several things are required to improve the safety of elderly drivers including: 1) not to ride for too long on straight road segments; 2) to ride in good physical condition; 3) sleep more than 7 hours at night; 4) not to use cell phones while riding; 5) necessary to review the eligibility of a driver’s license when motorcyclists reach the age of 45years; and 6) elderly riders need to be accompanied by another rider.
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