Identifying the Effects of Environmental Factors on Dengue Transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh: A Parametric Count Regression Approach
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Abstract
Bangladesh faces ongoing public health challenges from dengue fever, particularly in urban areas like Dhaka. The spread of this mosquito-borne disease is influenced by climate, with temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind speed affecting its occurrence and distribution. This study investigates the relationship between these environmental factors and dengue transmission in Dhaka from 2021 to 2023. Various count models—Poisson, Negative Binomial, discrete Lindley and Weibull, zero-inflated, and hurdle models—were applied to analyze dengue incidence. Model selection was based on AIC, dispersion, and predictive criteria. A simulation study supported the findings, consistently identifying the discrete Weibull model as the best fit. Results showed that maximum temperature and wind speed were negatively associated with dengue cases, while minimum temperature and humidity had a positive effect. Rainfall and visibility showed no significant impact. This study enhances understanding of how climate influences dengue in Dhaka and supports the development of effective prevention strategies, including a potential climate-based warning system for Bangladesh.
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