Supply Security Improvement of Long Term Electricity Expansion Planning of Java-Madura-Bali System in Indonesia

Abstract

Supply security can be defined as a system ability to provide a flow of energy to meet demand in an economy. The rapid increase of economic and population growth has resulted in increasing electricity demand and supply security in Indonesia. In 2005, the electrification ratio in Indonesia was 54 % and increased to 63% in 2006. According to the National Electricity Master plan 2006-2026, the electrification ratio is expected to be 93% in 2026. Despite the huge geothermal potential in Indonesia, it has been relatively little developed. Meanwhile, current Indonesian government policy concerning the power sector is to promote coal utilization. This paper analyzes Indonesian electricity supply security in the Java-Madura-Bali(Jamali) system from 2006 to 2025. The results show that using geothermal energy as an electricity source together with reducing transmission and distribution (T&D) losses, and implementing energy efficiency in the household sector would reduce installed capacity by 6.7 GW in 2025, mitigate 75 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent emissions from the power sector, and reduce the total system cost.