Daily Wind Speed Time Series Forecast Model at an Altitude of 120 Meters in Koh Phayam, Mueang Ranong, Ranong

Abstract

The aim of this research is to construct five methods of forecasting daily wind speed at an altitude of 120 meters in Koh Phayam, Mueang Ranong, Ranong Province, namely, Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, and combining forecasts method. Time series of wind speed were gathered from research center in energy and environment, Thaksin university during 1 January 2012 to 30 September 2015 of 1,369 days. The criterion of the lowest root mean squared error was used for comparing the suitability of the forecasting model. The results indicated that the most accurate method was the combining forecasts method (RMSE = 2.0306) which the forecasting model was