Analysis of Factors Affecting the Severity of Motorcycle Crashes on Highways in Thailand
Keywords:
Motorcycle Accidents, Injury severity, Multinomial Logistic RegressionAbstract
In Thailand, motorcycles are a major means of transportation. Every year, the number of newly registered motorcycles rises. Motorcycle riders’ account for the greatest number of fatalities due to road crashes (74.4 % of all road users in Thailand). The objective of this study is to explore the factors that influence the severity of motorcycle crashes on highways in Thailand. The Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) was applied to analyze the motorcycle crashes records from year 2018 to 2020 for determining the factor affecting the severity of motorcycle crashes. The factors analyzed were categorized into five categories, including day and time of crashes, roadway condition, environmental condition, characteristics of motorcyclists, and crash type. The severity of motorcycle crashes was divided into three categories: minor injury, serious injury, and fatality. The results revealed that the factors increasing the likelihood of fatal injury included concrete pavement, a sloping road, a wet road surface, nighttime, male riders, motorcyclists aged equal or more than 60, a crash involving hitting a large vehicle, a motorcycle being crashed and collision in the opposite direction. Vice versa, the factors decreasing the likelihood of fatal injury included a frontage road and a crash involving hitting another motorcycle. In addition, this research provided recommendations to reduce the severity of motorcycle crashes on highways in Thailand.
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