Forecasting the Rainfall in Uttaradit Province by Statistical Techniques
Keywords:
Rainfall, Winters’ additive, Box-JenkinsAbstract
The objective of this research was to find the suitable models and compare forecasting models for the rainfall in Uttaradit Province by using three statistical forecasting methods: Decomposition method, Winters’ additive method and Box-Jenkins method. In this study, the data was the monthly rainfall in Uttaradit Province from January 2007 to December 2022 with a total of 192 months. The results of building forecasting models indicated that Decomposition method resulted in an unsuitable forecasting model. Winters’ additive method yielded a suitable forecasting model was Yt+m = (7.664 +St-s+m)2 without trend estimate, and Box-Jenkins method revealed a suitable forecasting model was Yt= . When comparing the accuracy of the forecasting models by considering the lowest root mean square error, the results indicated that Winters’ additive method was the most accurate so this method was the most suitable for forecasting the rainfall in Uttaradit Province.
References
General information about the province [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2023 Sep 7]. Available from: https://www2.uttaradit.go.th/content/general
Komchadluek Online. Historical severe flooding from 1942 to 2010 [Internet]. 2010 [cited 2023 Sep 7]. Available from: https://www.komchadluek.net/news/77059
Bangkokbiznews. The rainstorm caused a 50-year severe flood in Uttaradit [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2023 Sep 7]. Available from: https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/news/detail/894753
Saengthong S. Uttaradit province declares drought-affect areas due to water shortage for agricultural purposes in several areas: 7 districts, 33 sub-districts, and 198 villages. [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2023 Dec 8]. Available from: https://nbtworld.prd.go.th/th/news/detail/TCATG200110220542755
Panichkitkosolkul W. Forecasting of rainfall of Nakhonratchasima Province. KMUTT Research and Development Journal. 2005; 28(2): 155-167. Thai.
Keerativibool W. Forecasting model of the rainfall in Songkhla Province. Thaksin University Journal. 2014; 17(1): 40-48. Thai.
Keerativibool W. Forecasting the rainfall in Muang Nan Province. KMUTT Research and Development Journal. 2015; 38(3): 211-223. Thai.
Panta C, Samranrit Y. Monthly rainfall amount forecasting in Nakhon Sawan by statistical forecasting techniques. Science and Technology Nakhon Sawan Rajabhat University Journal. 2017; 9(10): 127-142. Thai.
Wiguna IKAG, Utami NLPAC, Parwita WGS, Udayana IPAED, Sudipa IGI. Rainfall forecasting using the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method. Jurnal Info Sains: Informatikan dan Sains. 2023; 13(1): 15-23.
Irwan I, Abdy M, Karwingsi E, Ahmar AS. Rainfall forecasting in Makassar City using triple exponential smoothing method. ARRUS Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities. 2023; 3(1): 52-58.
Ket-iam S. Forecasting technique. 2nd ed. Songkhla: Thaksin University; 2005. Thai.
Manmin M. Time series and forecasting. Bangkok: Foreprinting; 2006. Thai.
Taesombut S. Quantitative forecasting. Bangkok: Kasetsart University; 2006. Thai.
Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Reinsel GC, Ljung GM. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. 5th ed. New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons; 2016.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 KKU Research Journal (Graduate Studies)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
