Results of Appeared Candidates in Matriculation / HSLC Examination in Assam (India): A Time Series Analysis (From 1951-2014)

Abstract

Completed Secondary education serves as a common denominator for progressing towards further education. It plays a significant role in generating the opportunities and benefits of individual, social and economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to know the nature of rate of pass percentages of female and male candidates in High School Leaving Certificate (HSLC) examination as an indicator of completion of secondary stage of education. From independence in Assam, a north-eastern state of India, the pass percentages of both male and female candidates in Matriculation / HSLC examination were not satisfactory. So, it is imperative to conduct an extensive study on completion rate of secondary education by the candidates using appropriate method. The objective of this study is to fit a time series model and forecast the pass percentages of female and male candidates in Matriculation / HSLC  examination, using time series data from 1951-2014. It is observed that ARIMA(0, 1, 2) and ARIMA(0, 1, 1) models are useful for forecasting pass percentages of female and male candidates respectively. Structural approach is adopted to construct several models eliminating inappropriate ones and keeping the most suitable model. The selected models are verified in terms of model structure and forecasting accuracy. The findings of this study may be helpful for effective planning and program implementation through proper budget allocation to ensure sustained growth and development of secondary education in the state.