Using Grey Systems Theory to forecast Thailand cumulative hot spots
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Abstract
This research aimed to forecast the cumulative hot spots of Thailand in 2023 using Grey Systems Theory and nationwide cumulative hot spots data from the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (a public organization) for the past 5 years, from 2017 to 2022. The hot spots were collected during the period of January to May, which is the last month of summer. Because the cumulative hot spot time series data decreased in 2018, it continued to increase in 2019 and 2020, then decreased in 2021 and 2022. The GM (1,1) with error periodic correction (EPC) model had a mean absolute percentage error of 10.54, which was less than the GM (1,1) model. Estimating the cumulative hot spots of Thailand in 2023 using the GM (1,1) EPC model, there will be 59,22 hot spots, a decrease of 4,202 hot spots from estimated 2022 or a decrease of 6.62 percent according to the continuously decreasing trend.
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