Forecasting Patent Trends and Emerging Technologies in the Construction Industry Using BERTopic
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Abstract
This study aims to forecast patent trends and exploring technologies in the construction industry using BERTopic, with patent data as the primary database. In addition, the study forecasts trends in patent registrations related to BIM technology using the Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and ARIMA methods. The results indicate that ARIMA(0,2,1) yields the lowest mean squared error (MSE) of 1.12. Furthermore, in exploring technology trends of BIM technology through keyword-based BERTopic analysis, the findings show that patents related to BIM technology can be classified into four main topics: (1) Topic 0, related to BIM-based methods and systems, such as the application of BIM in construction systems, management, and methodologies; (2) Topic 1, related to Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR); (3) Topic 2, related to Digital Twin technology, including Digital Twinning methods integrated with BIM; and (4) Topic 3, related to interior and decoration design using BIM. The findings of this study are intended to support construction firms, research and development departments, and technology policymakers in making informed strategic decisions regarding BIM adoption, innovation investment, and long-term technology planning in the construction sector.
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