Statistical comparison of rice price guarantee and rice mortgage scheme and the factors that affect each scheme prices

Abstract

The purpose of this report is to study the rice price guarantee and rice mortgage scheme by comparing the price of each scheme using statistical analysis and to study the factors that influence the rice price of each scheme. In this study, the data will be determined by how consistent they are with the objectives of each project and the variables which are the factors that influence each scheme price of rice by using regression model of rice prices and multiple linear regression of each scheme influencing factors. This study uses secondary data which is both quantitative data obtained from Rice Department and Department of Internal Trade and the knowledge and contents from the studies of regression analysis. The report uses the information from 2552 to 2554 B.E., price from 2554 to 2557 B.E., and 3 types of rice: non-glutinous rice, jasmine rice, and glutinous rice of rice with lower than 15% humidity.

            The study from the pros and cons of the rice price guarantee and rice mortgage scheme found out that although the two schemes have different good points, both schemes have similar objectives and management but differ at the execution state. When comparing the price of the rice price guarantee scheme and the proposed price from the Department of Internal Trade, the Pathumthani unmilled rice, non-glutinous unmilled rice and glutinous rice price were lower than the price that the government insured. The government had to lost 89,775 million Baht per year for 2552/53 and lost 147,235 million Baht per year for 2553/54.

            From gathering information of the rice price from rice mortgage scheme compared to selling price of rice of the Department of Internal Trade comes out that price at the point of purchase for jasmine unmilled rice, Phathumthani unmilled rice, glutinous unmilled rice, and non-glutinous unmilled rice were lower than the price that the government insured. The government had to pay 518,679 million Baht per year for 2553/54, 516,559 million Baht per year for 2554/55 and 719,979 million Baht per year for 2555/56.

            From the secondary information collected about the rice price guarantee and mortgage scheme, pros and cons analysis, and government expense calculation from quantitative data, it can be determined whether the factors that affect the price of rice is derived from documents related research or not. Therefore, the rice production (x4) which are variables that affect the rice price 72.6%  to create regression the equation y = 86105-164.38281X₄ .From the stated information, it can be concluded that the rice mortgage and rice insurance scheme did not take the factors that may affect the rice price into consideration when determining the rice price.