HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTED RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: INFLOW VARIABILITY AT HUAI LUANG RESERVOIR
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Abstract
This study aims to forecast the reservoir’s inflow under climate change impacts using global climate models, namly CanESM, CESM2, and GFDL-ESM4, under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Between 2023 and 2100. Afterwards, the HEC-HMS model was used to forecast the reservoir’s inflow. The model was calibrated and validated for the periods 2011–2013 and 2016–2020, yielding R² and NSE values more than 0.55, respectively, indicating satisfactory model performance. The results show that the future average inflow of the reservoir tends to decrease compared to the observed inflow. For example, the GFDL-ESM4 under the SSP245 scenario tends to decrease about 38.68 percent. These findings suggest that climate change may significantly impact water resource management in the region. In summary, this study provides essential insights to support the formulation of adaptive water resource management policies, particularly in planning water allocation for agriculture and domestic use, as well as enhancing preparedness to effectively respond to climate-induced impacts.
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The published articles are copyright of the Engineering Journal of Research and Development, The Engineering Institute of Thailand Under H.M. The King's Patronage (EIT).
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