Climate Change and Rainfall Projections in the Ayung Watershed, Bali, Indonesia using NCAR Model

doi: 10.14456/mijet.2022.9


  • I Gusti Ngurah Putu Dharmayasa Mahidol University, Thailand
  • Kritsanat Surakit Mahidol University, Thailand
  • Ranjna Jindal Mahidol University, Thailand
  • Romanee Thongdara Mahidol University, Thailand


climate change, rainfall prediction, NCAR model, Ayung watershed


Rainfall in an area is not the same over a period of time and fluctuates between sometimes very high and sometimes very low. Changes in rainfall are often associated with climate change in a region. Rainfall patterns over a long period can be used as an indicator of climatic conditions in a region.  Consequences of climate change have a bad impact on environment.  Future rainfall predictions are very important and can be useful in planning the strategies for adapting to changes in rainfall that may occur. The Ayung watershed is the largest watershed on the island of Bali, Indonesia and is very vulnerable to changes in rainfall. Changes in rainfall patterns cause various bad impacts, high rainfall causes flooding and low rainfall has the potential for drought. This study aimed at climate change and rainfall projections in the Ayung watershed, Bali, Indonesia using the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Models employing the rainfall data for 8 rainfall stations spread over the Ayung watershed during 2006 – 2018, derived from global climate models. Rainfall projections were carried out for a climate change scenario based on the IPCC fifth assessment report by adopting the Representative Carbon Pathway (RCP) approach. Climate projection results from NCAR were based on observed rainfall data in Ayung watershed for Representative Carbon Pathway (RCP) 6.0.  The results of rainfall projection had good agreement with the observed rainfall.  The rainfall projections can be made until 2030 which could be useful in strategy planning to overcome problems that will occur in the future due to changes in rainfall patterns.


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Author Biographies

I Gusti Ngurah Putu Dharmayasa, Mahidol University, Thailand

Environmental and Water Resources Engineering, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand

Kritsanat Surakit, Mahidol University, Thailand

Environmental and Water Resources Engineering, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand

Ranjna Jindal, Mahidol University, Thailand

Environmental and Water Resources Engineering, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand

Romanee Thongdara, Mahidol University, Thailand

Environmental and Water Resources Engineering, Mahidol University, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand


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