Assessing the Impact of Groundwater Variability on Dam Safety Based on Flood Situation and Climate Change Scenarios Using Hydrological Model
doi: 10.14456/mijet.2024.9
Keywords:
dam safety, groundwater, runoff, SWAT, Lam Khan Chu DamAbstract
Monitoring dam behavior during severe storms is a crucial step in assessing dam safety. Utilizing hydrological models is considered an effective approach to studying dam safety by analyzing the relationship among hydrological parameters. The objective of this study is to simulate groundwater conditions associated with runoff into the Lam Khan Chu Reservoir in the northeastern region of Thailand. This is achieved by applying the SWAT hydrologic model to simulate daily runoff conditions from 2018 - 2020 and extending the analysis to the future period from 2021 - 2030 using data from the HadGEM2-AO model in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The aim is to develop criteria for checking dam safety and predicting the impact of future groundwater changes. The results indicated that the SWAT model exhibited good performance in runoff calculation accuracy, as indicated by R2, NS, and PBIAS statistical indices. Additionally, the relationship between groundwater level from the SWAT-Check model and those obtained from observation wells was noteworthy. Simulating future dam safety conditions for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forecasts over five years revealed that surveillance measures are necessary for Lam Khan Chu Dam during the rainy season (August - October). This is due to the groundwater showing a trend above normal in the forecasted cases for the specified period. The research methods and findings are anticipated to serve as crucial guidelines for officials overseeing dam safety. These guidelines can be applied to plan preparedness measures, facilitating the timely monitoring and resolution of situations. This applies even to dams or reservoirs lacking a Dam instrument installation.
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