A New Scenario Management Model in the Establishment of Administrative Measures
Keywords:
Administrative measure, environmental law, sustainability, mixed methods research, protection measuresAbstract
This research aimed to study the magnitude of the impact resulting from changes in the factors of the future scenario policy under Thailand's sustainability policy for the upcoming two decades, spanning from 2020 to 2039 by developing a best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) model. The model was named structural equation modeling based on autoregressive integrated moving average with observed variables at first difference (SEM-var(1)). The central gap between this model and other model was the applicability of the proposed model for effective medium-term forecasting without spuriousity. As for the findings, the latent variables of the three sectors were causally found upon using the SEM-var(1) model with the highest performance, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.50 percent and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.75 percent. Furthermore, the new scenario policy was established by requiring at least 20 percent green technology and keeping future total energy consumption (2020-2029) below the country's carrying capacity. As a result, the future CO2 emission growth rate (2020-2029) would be 7.05 percent (2020-2029) or 39.01 Mt CO2Eq (from 2020-2029), which was less than the carrying capacity set by not exceeding 65.04 Mt CO2Eq (from 2020-2029). As for the administrative measures, Thailand must operate administrative legislation measures within environmental law by considering three key elements: 1) Principles of Environmental Protection Measures Planning, 2) Principles of Environment Damage Management, and 3) Principle of Polluters Pays. This result further indicated that the model is best suited for application in the formulation of future national administration plans.
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