Modeling Future Water Deficit Trends under Varying Climate Change Projections in Huai-SamMor Basin, Thailand

Jirawech  Srinate; Rattana Hormwichian

Authors

Jirawech Srinate Mahasarakham University, Thailand
Rattana Hormwichian Mahasarakham University, Thailand

Keywords:

GMI, Generalized Monsoon Index, Future Drought, Global Climate Models, CMIP5

Abstract

This study, two global climate change predictions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to forecast severity of drought occurrence in Huai-SamMor basin. The study examines severity of future drought conditions using Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) which is separated into four future periods: near future, middle future 1, middle future 2 and far future. The research finding indicated that for RCP8.5 scenario, CESM1_CAM5 and NorESM models were identified as most suitable. In contrast, for RCP4.5 scenario, CNRM and Miroc5 models were selected as most suitable. These selections were made using CMIP5 model as basis for evaluation. When considering GMI index and global climate change forecasts for both southwest and northeast monsoon scenarios, RCP8.5 projection indicate greater severity than RCP4.5. The findings suggest that frequency of drought occurrences increases by approximately 15–34% under RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5, particularly during dry season and in far future. Additionally, in RCP8.5, dryness is significantly exacerbated by elevated temperatures and reduced precipitation at critical periods. In contrast, northeast monsoon scenario exhibits highest degree of drought severity in far future in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 when comparing different time periods. Examinations of spatial and temporal patterns during northeast monsoon reveal a progressive intensification of drought severity over time, with most pronounced effects anticipated in far future. The basin's western and upper sections emerge as areas of elevated risk, underscoring notable regional variations in drought vulnerability. These observations suggest that global warming expedites hydrological cycles, contributing to an increased frequency and intensity of droughts. However, no existing studies have specifically utilized Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) to forecast drought-prone areas under future climate scenarios, leaving a critical gap in understanding severity of monsoon-induced droughts. This research addresses that gap and reveals a 15-34% increase in drought frequency under RCP8.5 relative to RCP4.5, with upper and western sections of Huai-SamMor basin facing the highest vulnerability.

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