Lag Time in Project Scheduling Network with respect to Risk event of Weir Construction
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Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the lag time due to the risk events of the weir construction project. Using the Fuzzy Inference System on an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Interfaces (ANFIS) together with Project Scheduling Network as a tool to predict the probability of risk. Data provided by 5 experts from projects in Chanthaburi and Rayong province were used as an input to predict the possibility of flood risk events. It consists of three risk factors: flow coefficient, rainfall intensity, and water receiving area. The results show that the model has a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.046. When applied to real construction projects, the results show that the duration of the project includes the risk in the form of lag time being 240 days and 212 days, respectively. Compared with the construction contract with construction duration of 180 days, it is found that the project duration increases by 60 days and 32 days, respectively which are close to the actual construction duration. This determination of lag time can be efficiently used as a guideline for real construction of small irrigation weirs.
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References
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DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001073(2015)
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