ตัวแบบพยากรณ์จำนวนนักศึกษาใหม่ มหาวิทยาลัยราชภัฏวไลยอลงกรณ์ ในพระบรมราชูปถัมภ์ (Forecasting Method for Number of New Students Valaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University under the Royal Patronage)

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to construct the appropriate forecasting model for the number of new students of Valaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University under the Royal Patronage. The data consisting of 23 values was gathered from the Academic Affairs and Registration Office of Valaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University under the Royal Patronage during the 1997-2019 academic years. The researchers divided the data into two sets. The first set consisted of 20 values from the 1997-2016 academic years to be used for constructing the forecasting model. Seven forecasting methods were used in this research, namely, the simple moving average of three academic years method, the linear trend equations method, the parabola trend equations method, the single exponential smoothing method, the Holt’s exponential smoothing method, the Brown’s exponential smoothing method, and the Damped trend exponential smoothing method.The second set consisted of 3 values from the 2017-2019 academic years to be used for comparing the efficiency of the forecasting methods via the criteria of the lowest mean absolute deviation and mean absolute percentage error. The results showed that the Damped trend exponential smoothing method was the most efficient forecasting method, with the forecasting that the number of new students had the tendency to decrease.