A Study of Electricity Planning in Thailand: An Integrated Top-down and Bottom-up Modeling Analysis

  • Supree Srisamran College of Architecture, Art, and Planning, Cornell University
  • Sutee Anantsuksomsri Faculty of Architecture, Chulalongkorn University
Keywords: Electricity planning, CGE, Electricity generation and transmission module

Abstract

This study illustrates the impact of three electricity policies to Thailand economy in
terms of macroeconomics performance, sectorial output, income distribution, and unemployment
rate. The three considered policies are the disruption of imported natural gas used
in electricity generation, the different of fuel feedstock portfolios for electricity generation,
and the rising of investment and local electricity consumption. The evaluation employs
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach with the extension of electricity
generation and transmission module to simulate the counterfactual scenario for each policy.
The first simulation shows that the consequence of imported natural gas disruption. The
result shows that the entire reduction of imported caused RGDP to drop by almost 0.1%. On
portfolio mixed of power generation, promoting hydro power is the most economical solution;
nonetheless, adverse effect to RGDP is recognized. Rather the second best alternative of
domestic natural gas dominated portfolio is recommended. Last simulation suggests that
several power plants such as South Bangkok, Siam Energy should be upgraded to cope with
expected 30% spike in power consumption due to regional trade and domestic investment.

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Published
2018-06-29
How to Cite
Srisamran, S., & Anantsuksomsri, S. (2018). A Study of Electricity Planning in Thailand: An Integrated Top-down and Bottom-up Modeling Analysis. nternational ournal of uilding, rban, nterior and andscape echnology (BUILT), 5, 49-67. etrieved from https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/BUILT/article/view/169302