A Study of Electricity Planning in Thailand: An Integrated Top-down and Bottom-up Modeling Analysis
Keywords:
Electricity planning, CGE, Electricity generation and transmission moduleAbstract
This study illustrates the impact of three electricity policies to Thailand economy in terms of macroeconomics performance, sectorial output, income distribution, and unemploy-ment rate. The three considered policies are the disruption of imported natural gas used in electricity generation, the different of fuel feedstock portfolios for electricity generation, and the rising of investment and local electricity consumption. The evaluation employs Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach with the extension of electricity generation and transmission module to simulate the counterfactual scenario for each policy.
The first simulation shows that the consequence of imported natural gas disruption. The result shows that the entire reduction of imported caused RGDP to drop by almost 0.1%. On portfolio mixed of power generation, promoting hydro power is the most economical solution; nonetheless, adverse effect to RGDP is recognized. Rather the second best alternative of domestic natural gas dominated portfolio is recommended. Last simulation suggests that several power plants such as South Bangkok, Siam Energy should be upgraded to cope with expected 30% spike in power consumption due to regional trade and domestic investment.
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