The Economic Factors Affecting the Price of Field Corn in Thailand

Abstract

The objectives of this research are 1) to study the economic factors influencing the price of field corn, 2) to create a forecasting equation for economic factors influencing the price of field corn. A total of 12 economic variables were used in the study, based on monthly data collected from January 2018 to December 2023, spanning 72 months. Factor analysis and multiple linear regression with the stepwise regression procedure were applied. The study found that 6 out of the 12 variables could not be used for factor analysis. The remaining 6 variables were subjected to factor analysis using the Varimax rotation method. The analysis identified 1 factor explained by 84.25% of the variance among the 6 independent variables. Subsequently, the 6 independent variables excluded from the factor analysis along with the single variable derived from the factor analysis were combined, resulting in seven variables: agricultural product exports (X₄), cultivated area (X₈), fertilizer usage (X₉), field corn export volume (X₁₀), Baht-to-Dollar exchange rate (X₁₁), fertilizer price (X₁₂), goods transportation (F₁). These variables were analyzed using multiple linear regression with the stepwise regression procedure to develop a forecasting equation for the relationship between the price of field corn and economic factors, as follows:

Raw Score Forecasting Equation

Y' =  5.645+ 0.625X₁₂ – 0.207X₁₀ + 0.243X₄

Standard score prediction equation

Z'_Y = 0.787Z₁₂ – 0.161Z₁₀ + 0.197Z₄

From the equations, it was concluded that the economic factors influencing the price of field corn are fertilizer price, field corn export volume, and agricultural product exports.