การวิเคราะห์ผลกระทบของปัจจัยเสี่ยงต่อระยะเวลาก่อสร้างถนน

Abstract

This paper presents the impact of factors affecting highway construction duration.  The objective is to apply the result during the planning stage of new road construction. Based on the survey result of both private contractors and highway authorities from the Department of Highways, it is found that rain is the major risk factor on earthwork, subbase, base, and pavement construction duration. According to the analysis result of average raining days in all provinces in Thailand from the Meteorological Department, there are 90 and 120 raining days during the raining season in the provinces that have rained less than 1500 mm. and more than 1500 mm. respectively. In addition, most major risk factors are found during earthwork phase such as soil condition, proprietary right of land, and utility relocation. The Fuzzy Membership Function is then developed based on experts’ opinion on estimated increasing time as percentage comparing to normal situation to compensate those risk factors. This research can be used as a guideline of risk analysis for road construction time planning to reduce estimation error due to related risk factors.