Modelling Assessment of Sandy Beaches Erosion in Thailand DOI: 10.32526/ennrj.17.2.2019.14
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Published:
Dec 17, 2018
Keywords:
Sea-level rise Sandy beach erosion SimCLIM CoastCLIM model Sand loss Forced people migration
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Abstract
This paper focuses on the spatial and temporal aspects of rising sea levels and sandy beach erosion in Thailand. The major scientific challenge tackled in this paper was to distinguish the relevance and contribution of sea level rise (including storms) to beach erosion. The Simulator of Climate Change Risks and Adaptation Initiatives (SimCLIM) and its’ impact model (CoastCLIM) with two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) was utilized to forecast changes in sea level and shoreline between the years 1940-2100. Input parameters underlying the modified Brunn Rule were applied (e.g., coastal and storm characteristics). Moreover, sand loss and forced people migration were estimated using fundamental equations. The sea level is predicted to rise by 147.90 cm and the coastline will be eroded around 517.09 m by 2100, compared to levels in 1995. This level of erosion could lead to a decrease of the coastal sandy area by about 2.69 km2 and a population of 873 people, over the same period. In scientific terms, this paper quantifies the contribution and relevance of sea-level rise (SLR) to sandy beach erosion compared to other factors, including ad-hoc short-term impacts from stochastic storminess. The results also showed that 8.02 and 23.26 percent of erosion was attributed to storms and sea-level rise, respectively. Nevertheless, limited multi-century data of residual movement in Thailand could create uncertainties in distinguishing relative contributions. These results could be beneficial to national-scale data and the adaptation planning processes in Thailand.
Article Details
How to Cite
Thepsiriamnuay, H., & Pumijumnong, N. (2018). Modelling Assessment of Sandy Beaches Erosion in Thailand: DOI: 10.32526/ennrj.17.2.2019.14. Environment and Natural Resources Journal, 17(2), 71–86. Retrieved from https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/160552
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Original Research Articles
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References
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Chen XY, Chau KW. A Hybrid Double Feedforward neural network for suspended sediment load estimation. Water Resources Management 2016;30 (2016):2179-94.
Chen WB, Liu WC, Hsu MH. Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2012;12(12):3799-809.
Chen Q, Ayer T, Chhatwal J. Sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models: A probabilistic approach. Society for Medical Decision Making 2016;37(2):243-52.
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Dwarakish GS, Vinay SA, Natesan U, Asano T, Kakinuma T, Venkataramana K, Jagadeesha BP, Babita MK. Coastal vulnerability assessment of the future sea level rise in Udupi coastal zone of Karnataka state, west coast of India. Ocean and Coastal Management 2009;52(9):467-78.
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Joyce TM, Robbins P. The long-term hydrographic record at Bermuda. American Meteorological Society 1996;9:3121-31.
Kraipanon N. Beyond Copenhagen: Implementing Thailand’s climate change strategy. Proceeding of the Development Cooperation Seminar on Climate change; Bangkok: Thailand; 2010. (in Thai)
Leatherman SP. Coastal geomorphic responses to sea level rise: Galveston bay, Texas. In: Barth MC, Titus JG, editors. Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for this Generation. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Company Inc; 1984. p. 1-24.
Lu H, Shen G, Zhu Z. An approach for reliability-based sensitivity analysis based on saddlepoint approximation. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability; Xuzhou: China; 2017.
Marghany M. Simulation of three-dimensional of coastal erosion using differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Global NEST Journal 2013;16(1):80-6.
Moss RH, Edmond JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010;463(7282):747-56.
Murdukhayeva A, August P, Bradley M, LaBash C, Shaw N. Assessment of inundation risk from sea level rise and storm surge in northeastern coastal national parks. Journal of Coastal Research 2013;29(6A):1-16.
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National Research Council of Thailand. National Research Strategy for Tourism: 2012-2016. Bangkok, Thailand: National Research Council of Thailand; 2012. (in Thai)
Niemnil S, Trisirisatayawong I. Sea level trend in gulf of Thailand using tide gauge data. Proceedings of the 45th Conference of Kasetsart University; Bangkok: Thailand; 2007. (in Thai)
Olyaie E, Banejad H, Chau KW, Melesse AM. A comparison of various artificial intelligence approaches performance for estimating suspended sediment load of river systems: a case study in United States. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2015;1(2015):187-9.
Petropoulos GP, Srivastava PK. Sensitivity Analysis in Earth Observation Modelling. London: Elsevier, 2017.
Prince of Songkhla University. Sandy beach: Vanished natural heritage. Songkhla, Thailand: Prince of Songkhla University; 2011. (in Thai)
Ranasinghe R, Stive MJF. Rising seas and retreating coastlines. Climatic Change 2009;97(3-4):465-8.
Rosati JD, Dean RG, Walton TL. The modified Bruun Rule extended for landward transport. Marine Geology 2013;340(2013):71-81.
Saengsupavanich C, Chonwattana S, Naimsampao T. Coastal erosion through integrated management: a case of Southern Thailand. Ocean and Coastal Management 2009;52(6):307-16.
Saramul S, Ezer T. Spatial variations of sea level along the coast of Thailand: Impacts of extreme land subsidence, earthquakes and the seasonal monsoon. Global and Planetary Change 2014;122(2014):70-81.
Smith S. Coastal Erosion and Sea Level Rise: Briefing Paper No 6/2010. New South Wales, Australia: Parliamentary Library Research Service; 2010.
Snidvongs A, Ketwut T, Phruksawan K, Laongmanee W, Chinawanno S, Thitiwate J, Yangdee C, Tuatikulchai J, Boonsomboonsakul S, Sangmanee C. Climate Change Impacts in Krabi Province, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand: South East Asian-Global Change System for Analysis Research and Training organization; 2008.
Sojisuporn P, Sangmanee C, Wattayakorn G. Recent estimate of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Thailand. Maejo International Journal of Science and Technology 2013;7(Special Issue):106-13.
Thampanya U, Vermaat JE, Sinsakul S, Panapitukkul N. Coastal erosion and mangrove progradation of Southern Thailand. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 2006;68(1-2):75-85.
Trisirisatayawong I, Naeije M, Simons W, Fenoglio-Marc L. Sea level change in the gulf of Thailand from GPS-corrected tide gauge data and multi-satellite altimetry. Journal of Global and Planetary Change 2011;76(3-4):137-51.
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Vafeidis AT, Boot G, Cox J, Maaten R, McFadden L, Nicholls RJ, Spencer T, Tol RSJ. The DIVA Database Documentation. Hamburg, Germany: DINAS-COAST; 2004.
Van Vuuren DP, Den Elzen MGJ, Lucas PL, Eickhout B, Strengers BJ, Van Ruijven B, Wonink S, Van Houdt R. Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Climatic Change 2007;81(2):119-59.
Warrick RA. CoastCLIM: Brief Description and Users Guide. Hamilton, New Zealand: CLIMsystems Ltd; 1998.
Willmott JC, Matsuura K. Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance. Climate Research 2005;30(2005):79-82.
Yates ML, Le Cozannet G. Evaluating European coastal evolution using Bayesian networks. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2012;12(1):1173-7.
Yin C, Li Y, Urich P. SimCLIM 2013: Data Manual. Hamilton, New Zealand: CLIMsystems Ltd; 2013.
Zhang KQ, Douglas BC, Leatherman SP. Global warming and coastal erosion. Climatic Change 2004;64(1-2):1-2.
Akpinar A, Özger M, Bekiroglu S, Komurcu MI. Performance evaluation of parametric models in the hindcasting of wave parameters along the south coast of Black Sea. Indian Journal of Geo-Marine Sciences 2013;43(6):899-914.
Alexandrakis G, Poulos ES. An holistic approach to beach erosion vulnerability assessment [Internet]. 2014 [cited 2018 Sep 17]. Available from: https://www. nature.com/articles/srep06078.pdf.
Amin MM, Martinez JF. Sensitivity analysis approach of new dynamic harmonic distortion current limits on utility grids. Electric Power Components and Systems 2018;45(17):1941-50.
Batten BK, Weberg P, Mampara M, Xu L. Evaluation of sea level rise for FEMA flood insurance studies: Magnitude and time-frames of relevance. Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters Congress; Hawaii: United States; 2007.
Bird ECF. Coastal Geomorphology: An Introduction. 2nd ed. West Sussex, England: John Wiley and Sons; 2008.
Cazenave A, Llovel W. Contemporary sea level rise. Annual Review of Marine Science 2010;2(1):145-73.
Chai T, Draxler RR. Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)? - Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the literature. Geoscientific Model Development 2014;7(1):1247-50.
Chen XY, Chau KW. A Hybrid Double Feedforward neural network for suspended sediment load estimation. Water Resources Management 2016;30 (2016):2179-94.
Chen WB, Liu WC, Hsu MH. Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2012;12(12):3799-809.
Chen Q, Ayer T, Chhatwal J. Sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models: A probabilistic approach. Society for Medical Decision Making 2016;37(2):243-52.
Church JA, Clark PU. Sea level change. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM, editors. Climate Change 2013 The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2013. p. 1137-216.
Church JA, Gregory JM. Changes in sea level. In: Douglas BC, Ramirez A, editors. Climate Change 2001 - IPCC Third Assessment Report, Working Group I: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2001. p. 641-93.
CLIMsystems. SimCLIM 2013 Essentials Training Book 1 version 3.0. Hamilton, New Zealand: CLIMsystems Ltd; 2013.
Department of Marine and Coastal Resource. Causes of problems on coastal erosion in Thailand [Internet]. 2013a [cited 2017 Mar 25]. Available from: https://km.dmcr.go.th/en/c_55/d_325.
Department of Marine and Coastal Resource. Central database system and data standard for marine and coastal resources [Internet]. 2013b [cited 2017 Feb 20]. Available from: http://marinegiscenter.dmcr. go.th/gis/.
Department of Mineral Resources. Academic report: shoreline change of the Andaman Sea coast. Bangkok, Thailand: Department of Mineral Resources; 2001. (in Thai)
Department of Mineral Resources. Academic Report: Shoreline Change of the Gulf of Thailand coast. Bangkok, Thailand: Department of Mineral Resources; 2002. (in Thai)
Department of Mineral Resources. Geology for coastal management of Thailand [Internet]. 2003 [cited 2017 Mar 25]. Available from: http://www.dmr.go.th/main. php?filename=geo_coastal___EN.
Department of Mineral Resources. Status of coastal geo-environment in Thailand [Internet]. 2014 [cited 2017 Feb 22]. Available from: http://www.dmr.go.th/main. php?filename=Coastal2015___EN.
Dwarakish GS, Vinay SA, Natesan U, Asano T, Kakinuma T, Venkataramana K, Jagadeesha BP, Babita MK. Coastal vulnerability assessment of the future sea level rise in Udupi coastal zone of Karnataka state, west coast of India. Ocean and Coastal Management 2009;52(9):467-78.
Farrel GJ. Climate Change: Impacts on Coastal Areas. Dublin, Ireland: Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources; 2007.
Hinkel J, Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ, Wang ZB, Hamilton JM, Boot G, Vafeidis AT, McFadden L, Ganopolski A, Klein RJT. A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA. Global and Planetary Change 2013;111(1):150-8.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. RCP Database (Version 2.0) [Internet]. 2009. [cited 2017 Feb 4]. Available from: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/ RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Compare: CO2 equivalent concentration (GHGs-Only) [Internet]. 2015. [cited 2017 Feb 4]. Available from: http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_scenario_process/ RCPs.html.
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Scenario process for AR5: Representative for concentration pathways (RCPs) [Internet]. 2014. [cited 2017 Feb 4]. Available from: http://sedac.ipcc-data.org/ddc/ar5_ scenario_process/RCPs.html.
Joyce TM, Robbins P. The long-term hydrographic record at Bermuda. American Meteorological Society 1996;9:3121-31.
Kraipanon N. Beyond Copenhagen: Implementing Thailand’s climate change strategy. Proceeding of the Development Cooperation Seminar on Climate change; Bangkok: Thailand; 2010. (in Thai)
Leatherman SP. Coastal geomorphic responses to sea level rise: Galveston bay, Texas. In: Barth MC, Titus JG, editors. Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for this Generation. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold Company Inc; 1984. p. 1-24.
Lu H, Shen G, Zhu Z. An approach for reliability-based sensitivity analysis based on saddlepoint approximation. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability; Xuzhou: China; 2017.
Marghany M. Simulation of three-dimensional of coastal erosion using differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Global NEST Journal 2013;16(1):80-6.
Moss RH, Edmond JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010;463(7282):747-56.
Murdukhayeva A, August P, Bradley M, LaBash C, Shaw N. Assessment of inundation risk from sea level rise and storm surge in northeastern coastal national parks. Journal of Coastal Research 2013;29(6A):1-16.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [Internet]. 2014 [cited 2017 Mar 22]. Available from:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/sod/lsa/SeaLevelRise/slr/slr_sla_ans_keep_txj1j2_90.pdf
National Research Council of Thailand. National Research Strategy for Tourism: 2012-2016. Bangkok, Thailand: National Research Council of Thailand; 2012. (in Thai)
Niemnil S, Trisirisatayawong I. Sea level trend in gulf of Thailand using tide gauge data. Proceedings of the 45th Conference of Kasetsart University; Bangkok: Thailand; 2007. (in Thai)
Olyaie E, Banejad H, Chau KW, Melesse AM. A comparison of various artificial intelligence approaches performance for estimating suspended sediment load of river systems: a case study in United States. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 2015;1(2015):187-9.
Petropoulos GP, Srivastava PK. Sensitivity Analysis in Earth Observation Modelling. London: Elsevier, 2017.
Prince of Songkhla University. Sandy beach: Vanished natural heritage. Songkhla, Thailand: Prince of Songkhla University; 2011. (in Thai)
Ranasinghe R, Stive MJF. Rising seas and retreating coastlines. Climatic Change 2009;97(3-4):465-8.
Rosati JD, Dean RG, Walton TL. The modified Bruun Rule extended for landward transport. Marine Geology 2013;340(2013):71-81.
Saengsupavanich C, Chonwattana S, Naimsampao T. Coastal erosion through integrated management: a case of Southern Thailand. Ocean and Coastal Management 2009;52(6):307-16.
Saramul S, Ezer T. Spatial variations of sea level along the coast of Thailand: Impacts of extreme land subsidence, earthquakes and the seasonal monsoon. Global and Planetary Change 2014;122(2014):70-81.
Smith S. Coastal Erosion and Sea Level Rise: Briefing Paper No 6/2010. New South Wales, Australia: Parliamentary Library Research Service; 2010.
Snidvongs A, Ketwut T, Phruksawan K, Laongmanee W, Chinawanno S, Thitiwate J, Yangdee C, Tuatikulchai J, Boonsomboonsakul S, Sangmanee C. Climate Change Impacts in Krabi Province, Thailand. Bangkok, Thailand: South East Asian-Global Change System for Analysis Research and Training organization; 2008.
Sojisuporn P, Sangmanee C, Wattayakorn G. Recent estimate of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Thailand. Maejo International Journal of Science and Technology 2013;7(Special Issue):106-13.
Thampanya U, Vermaat JE, Sinsakul S, Panapitukkul N. Coastal erosion and mangrove progradation of Southern Thailand. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 2006;68(1-2):75-85.
Trisirisatayawong I, Naeije M, Simons W, Fenoglio-Marc L. Sea level change in the gulf of Thailand from GPS-corrected tide gauge data and multi-satellite altimetry. Journal of Global and Planetary Change 2011;76(3-4):137-51.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Climate Change Information Sheet 11: Sea Levels, Oceans, and Coastal Areas [Internet]. 2014 [cited 2017 Feb 20]. Available from: http://unfccc.int/ resource/iuckit/infokit.pdf.
Vafeidis AT, Boot G, Cox J, Maaten R, McFadden L, Nicholls RJ, Spencer T, Tol RSJ. The DIVA Database Documentation. Hamburg, Germany: DINAS-COAST; 2004.
Van Vuuren DP, Den Elzen MGJ, Lucas PL, Eickhout B, Strengers BJ, Van Ruijven B, Wonink S, Van Houdt R. Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Climatic Change 2007;81(2):119-59.
Warrick RA. CoastCLIM: Brief Description and Users Guide. Hamilton, New Zealand: CLIMsystems Ltd; 1998.
Willmott JC, Matsuura K. Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error (RMSE) in assessing average model performance. Climate Research 2005;30(2005):79-82.
Yates ML, Le Cozannet G. Evaluating European coastal evolution using Bayesian networks. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2012;12(1):1173-7.
Yin C, Li Y, Urich P. SimCLIM 2013: Data Manual. Hamilton, New Zealand: CLIMsystems Ltd; 2013.
Zhang KQ, Douglas BC, Leatherman SP. Global warming and coastal erosion. Climatic Change 2004;64(1-2):1-2.