Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Rice Production in Thailand during 1961-2016 DOI: 10.32526/ennrj.17.4.2019.29
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Published:
Jun 13, 2019
Keywords:
Rice production El Niño-Southern Oscillation Asymmetry Thailand
Main Article Content
Abstract
The impacts of ENSO and its associated climate variability on Thailand’s rice production, area harvested and yield during 1961-2016 were examined. Analysis showed that year-to-year weather-related variations in Thailand’s rice production, area harvested and yield which accounted for about one third of total interannual variance tended to vary in response to the phase reversals of ENSO events, with large decreases occurred during El Niño events. Rice production, area harvested and yield also exhibited lower (higher) than normal during the years when Thailand experienced deficit (excess) rainfall and lower (greater) number of rainy days. These results in combination with the previous studies suggest that ENSO exerts its influence on rice production and yield in Thailand via inducing anomalies in rainfall and temperature. Another noteworthy finding was the asymmetrical ENSO-Thailand’s rice production relationship. Significant decline was observed only during El Niño events, highlighting a much greater influence of El Niño events on Thailand’s rice production, area harvested and yield than La Niña events. This observation provides additional evidence extending the previously reported asymmetry in the ENSO-rainfall relationship in Thailand to rice production and yield as well. Hence, the asymmetrical ENSO-rice relationship should be taken into account when developing linearly predictive model.
Article Details
How to Cite
Limsakul, A. (2019). Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Rice Production in Thailand during 1961-2016: DOI: 10.32526/ennrj.17.4.2019.29. Environment and Natural Resources Journal, 17(4), 30–42. Retrieved from https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/194376
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Original Research Articles
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References
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37. Stuecker MF, Tigchelaar M, Kantar MB. Climate variability impacts on rice production in the Philippines. PLOS ONE 2018;13(8):e0201426.
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41. Trenberth KE. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In: Elias S, editor. Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences. Elsevier; 2013. p. 1-11.
42. Tubiello FN, Salvatore M, Rossi S, Ferrara A, Fitton N, Smith P. The FAOSTAT database of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Environmental Research Letters 2013;8:015009.
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44. Ubilawa D. El Niño, La Niña and world coffee price dynamics. Agricultural Economics 2012;43:17-26.
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51. Yahiya SZ, Adhikari S, Weerasekara M, Zubair L. The Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on Rice Production, Area and Yield in Sri Lanka. Project Report SEARCA-FAO; 2010. p. 36.
52. Zhang T, Zhu J, Yang X, Zhang X. Correlation changes between rice yields in north and northwest China and ENSO from 1960 to 2004. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2008;148(6-7):1021-33.
53. Zhang W, Li H, Stuecher MF, Jin FF, Turner AG. A new understanding of El Niño’s impact over East Asia: Dominance of the ENSO combination mode. Journal of Climate 2016;29:4347-59.
54. Zubair L. El Niño-Southern Oscillation influences on rice production in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Climatology 2002;22:249-60.
2. An SI, Jin FF. Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO. Journal of Climate 2004;17:2399-412.
3. Angulo C, Becker M, Wassmann R. Yield gap analysis and assessment of climate-induced yield trends of irrigated rice in selected provinces of the Philippines. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics 2012;113(1):61-8.
4. Asada H, Matsumoto J. Effects of rainfall variation on rice production in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin. Climate Research 2009;38:249-60.
5. Bhuvaneswari K, Geethalakshmi V, Lakshmanan A, Srinivasan R, Sekhar NU. The impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on hydrology and rice productivity in the Cauvery Basin, India: Application of the soil and water assessment tool. Weather and Climate Extremes 2013;2:39-47.
6. Brönnimann S. Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on European climate. Reviews of Geophysics 2007;45: G3003.
7. Cantelaube P, Terres JM, Doblas-Reyes F. Influence of climate variability on European agriculture - Analysis of winter wheat production. Climate Research 2004; 27:135-44.
8. Cashin P, Mohaddes K, Raissi M. Fair weather or foul? The macroeconomic effects of El Niño. Journal of International Economics 2017;106:37-54.
9. Chung NT, Jintrawet A, Promburoma P. Impacts of seasonal climate variability on rice production in the central highlands of Vietnam. Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia 2015;5:83-8.
10. Feng S, Hu Q, Qian W. Quality control of daily metrological data in China, 1951-2000: A new dataset. International Journal of Climatology 2004;24:853-70.
11. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). El Niño in Asia: Prolonged dry weather in several countries affecting plantings and yield potential of the 2015 main season food crops [Internet]. 2015 [cited 2018 Nov 15]. Available from: http://www.fao.org/3/a-I4829E.pdf.
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13. Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA, Cassidy ES, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Mueller ND, O’Connell C, Ray DK, West PC, Balzer C, Bennett EM, Carpenter SR, Hill J, Monfreda C, Polasky S, Rockström J, Sheehan J, Siebert S, Tilman D, Zaks DPM. Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature 2011;478:337-42.
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15. Gutierrez L. Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the wheat market: A global dynamic analysis. PLOS ONE 2017;12(6):e0179086.
16. Hanley DE, Bourassa MA, O’Brien JJ, Smithm SR, Spade ER. A quantitative evaluation of ENSO indices. Journal of Climate 2003;16:1249-58.
17. Iizumi T, Luo JJ, Challinor AJ, Sakurai G, Yokozawa M, Sakuma H, Brown ME, Yamagata T. Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops. Nature Communications 2014;5:3712.
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19. Kohyama T, Hartmann DL, Battisti DS. Weakening of nonlinear ENSO under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 2018;45(16):8557-67.
20. Limsakul A, Goes JI. Empirical evidence for interannual and longer period variability in Thailand surface air temperatures. Atmospheric Research 2008;87:89-102.
21. Limsakul A, Limjirakan S, Suthamanuswong B. Spatio-temporal changes in total annual rainfall and the annual number of rainy days in Thailand. Journal of Environmental Research 2007;29(2):1-21.
22. Limsakul A, Singhruck P, Wang L. Climatology and spatio-temporal variability of wintertime total and extreme rainfall in Thailand during 1970-2012. EnvironmentAsia 2017;10(2):162-76.
23. Limsakul A, Singhruck P. Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand. Atmospheric Research 2016;169;301-17.
24. Marlier ME, DeFries RS, Voulgarakis A, Kinney PL, Randerson JT, Shindell DT, Chen Y, Faluvegi G. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in Southeast Asia. Nature Climate Change 2012;3:131-6.
25. Naruchaikusol S. Climate change in Thailand. TransRe Fact Sheet 2016;2:1-6.
26. Naylor RL, Battisti DS, Vimont DJ, Falcon WP, Burke MB. Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2007;104:7752-7.
27. Nobre GG, Hunink JE, Baruth B, Aerts JCJH, Ward PJ. Climate variability and the European agricultural
28. production. Geophysical Research Abstracts 2017;19: EGU2017-10105.
29. Pheakdey DV, Xuan TD, Khanh TD. Influence of climate factors on rice yields in Cambodia. AIMS Geosciences 2017;3(4):561-75.
30. Rahman MA, Kang SC, Nagabhatla N, Macnee R. Impacts of temperature and rainfall variation on rice productivity in major ecosystems of Bangladesh. Agriculture and Food Security 2017;6:10.
31. Ray DK, Gerber JS, MacDonald GK, West PC. Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability. Nature Communication 2015;6:5989.
32. Reda AG, Tripathi NK, Soni P, Tipdecho T. Rain fed rice agriculture under climate variability in Southeast Asia: The case of Thailand. Journal of Earth Science and Climatic Change 2015;6(8):297.
33. Roberts MG, Dawe D, Falcon WP, Naylor RL. El Niño-Southern Oscillation impacts on rice production in Luzon, the Philippines. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2009;48:1718-24.
34. Sarachik ES, Cane MA. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2010.
35. Selvaraju R. Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Indian foodgrain production. International Journal of Climatology 2003;23:187-206.
36. Shuai J, Zhang Z, Sun DZ, Tao F, Shi P. ENSO, climate variability and crop yields in China. Climate Research 2013;58:133-48.
37. Stuecker MF, Tigchelaar M, Kantar MB. Climate variability impacts on rice production in the Philippines. PLOS ONE 2018;13(8):e0201426.
38. Tao F, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z, Hayashi Y, Grass H, Fu C. Variability in climatology and agricultural production in China in association with the East Asian summer monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Climate Research 2004;28:23-30.
39. Thaiturapaisan T. Thailand’s drought crisis 2016: Understanding it without the panic. Economic Intelligence Center of Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited [Internet]. 2016 [cited 2018 Nov 10]. Available from: https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail /product/2127.
40. Tiamiyu SA, Eze JN, Yusuf TM, Maji AT, Bakare SO. Rainfall variability and its effect on yield of rice in Nigeria. International Letters of Natural Sciences 2015;49:63-8.
41. Trenberth KE. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In: Elias S, editor. Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences. Elsevier; 2013. p. 1-11.
42. Tubiello FN, Salvatore M, Rossi S, Ferrara A, Fitton N, Smith P. The FAOSTAT database of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. Environmental Research Letters 2013;8:015009.
43. Ubilawa D, Holt M. El Niño southern oscillation and its effects on world vegetable oil prices: Assessing asymmetries using smooth transition models. The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 2013;57:273-97.
44. Ubilawa D. El Niño, La Niña and world coffee price dynamics. Agricultural Economics 2012;43:17-26.
45. Wang XL, Wen QH, Wu Y. Penalized maximal t-test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2007;46:916-31.
46. Wang XL. Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or f test. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2008;47:2423-44.
47. Wikarmpapraharn C, Kositsakulchai E. Relationship between ENSO and rainfall in the central plain of Thailand. Kasetsart Journal (Natural Science) 2010;44:744-55.
48. Wolter K, Timlin MS. Measuring the strength of ENSO-how does 1997/98 rank. Weather 1998;53:315-24.
49. World Bank Group. Thailand economic monitor 2017-Digital transformation. Bangkok, Thailand: World Bank Office; 2017.
50. Xiangzheng D, Jikun H, Fangbin Q, Naylor RL, Falcon WP, Burke M, Rozelle S, Battisti D. Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production. Journal of Geographical Sciences 2010; 20:3-16.
51. Yahiya SZ, Adhikari S, Weerasekara M, Zubair L. The Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events on Rice Production, Area and Yield in Sri Lanka. Project Report SEARCA-FAO; 2010. p. 36.
52. Zhang T, Zhu J, Yang X, Zhang X. Correlation changes between rice yields in north and northwest China and ENSO from 1960 to 2004. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2008;148(6-7):1021-33.
53. Zhang W, Li H, Stuecher MF, Jin FF, Turner AG. A new understanding of El Niño’s impact over East Asia: Dominance of the ENSO combination mode. Journal of Climate 2016;29:4347-59.
54. Zubair L. El Niño-Southern Oscillation influences on rice production in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Climatology 2002;22:249-60.