Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand 10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012

Main Article Content

Allan Sriratana Tabucanon
Areeya Rittima
Detchasit Raveephinit
Yutthana Phankamolsil
Wudhichart Sawangphol
Jidapa Kraisangka
Yutthana Talaluxmana
Varawoot Vudhivanich
Wenchao Xue

Abstract

Bhumibol Dam is the largest dam in the central region of Thailand and it serves as an important water resource. The dam’s operation relies on reservoir operating rules that were developed on the basis of the relationships among rainfall-inflow, water balance, and downstream water demand. However, due to climate change, changing rainfall variability is expected to render the reliability of the rule curves insecure. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of climate change on the reliability of the current reservoir operation rules of Bhumibol Dam. The future scenarios from 2000 to 2099 are based on EC-EARTH under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios downscaled by RegCM4. MIKE11 HD was developed for the inflow simulation. The model generates the inflow well (R2=0.70). Generally, the trend of increasing inflow amounts is expected to continue in the dry seasons from 2000-2099, while large fluctuations of inflow are expected to be found in the wet seasons, reflecting high uncertainties. In the case of standard deviations, a larger deviation is predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. For the reservoir’s operation in a climate change study, standard operating procedures were applied using historical release records to estimate daily reservoir release needed to serve downstream water demand in the future. It can be concluded that there is high risk of current reservoir operating rules towards the operation reliability under RCP4.5 (80% reliability), but the risk is lower under RCP8.5 (87% reliability) due to increased inflow amounts. The unmanageability occurs in the wet season, cautioning the need to redesign the rules.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

How to Cite
Tabucanon, A. S., Rittima, A., Raveephinit, D., Phankamolsil, Y., Sawangphol, W., Kraisangka, J., Talaluxmana, Y., Vudhivanich, V., & Xue, W. (2021). Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Reliability: A Case of Bhumibol Dam in Ping River Basin, Thailand: 10.32526/ennrj/19/2021012. Environment and Natural Resources Journal, 19(4), 266-281. Retrieved from https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/ennrj/article/view/243077
Section
Original Research Articles

References

1. Adeloye AJ, Dau QV. Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong Reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India. Science of The Total Environment 2019;687:554-66.

2. Cruz FT, Narisma GT, Dado JB, Singhruck P, Tangang F, Linarka UA, et al. Sensitivity of temperature to physical parameterization schemes of RegCM4 over the CORDEX-Southeast Asia region. International Journal of Climatology 2017;37:5139-53.

3. Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI.) MIKE 11 User Guide [Internet]. 2017 [cited 2021 Jan 12]. Available from: https://manuals.mikepoweredbydhi.help/2017/Water_Resources/MIKE11_UserManual.pdf.

4. Ehsani N, Vörösmarty CJ, Fekete BM, Stakhiv EZ. Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk. Journal of Hydrology 2017;555:435-46.

5. Fletcher S, Lickley M, Strzepek K. Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning. Nature Communications 2019;10:1782.

6. Giesen NVD, Liebe J, Jung G. Adapting to climate change in the Volta Basin, West Africa. Current Science 2010;98(8):1033-7.

7. Harraki WEL, OUAZAR D, Bouziane A, Hasnaoui D. Climate change observations and trends overview: Focus on Morocco with a case-study of a future reservoir’s response to climate change. E3S Web Conference 2020;150.

8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Global Warming of 1.5oC: An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5oC Above Preindustrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. In Press; 2018.

9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press; 2012.

10. Jain SK, Singh, VP. Water Resources Systems Planning and Management. New York, USA: Springer; 2003.

11. Kang B, Lee SJ, Kang DH, Kim YO. A flood risk projection for Yongdam Dam against future climate change. Journal of Hydro-environment Research 2007;1:118-25.

12. Kim S, Tachikawa Y, Nakakita E, Takara K. Reconsideration of reservoir operations under climate change: case study with Yagisawa Dam, Japan. Annual Journal of Hydraulics Engineering 2009;53:115-20.

13. Kitpaisalsakul T. Impact of climate change on irrigation water management by the Bhumibol Dam in Thailand. Journal of Thai Interdisciplinary Research 2018;13:49-54.

14. Koontanakulvong S, Vudhivanich V, Rittima A, Phankamolsil Y, Tabucanon AS, Sawangphol W, et al. Lesson learnt from past to present and water storage potential in future for Bhumibol and Sirikit Dams. Proceedings of the 13th THAICID National E-Symposium; 2020 Jul 31; Studio of Irrigation Development Institute, Bangkok: Thailand; 2020.

15. Kompor W, Yoshikawa S, Kanae S. Use of seasonal streamflow forecasts for flood mitigation with adaptive reservoir operation: A case study of the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, in 2011. Water 2020;12(3210):1-19.

16. Kure S, Tenakari T, Okabe M. Spatial and seasonal differences in the response of flow to climate change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser.B1 (Hydraulic Engineering) 2013;69(4):55-60.

17. Limsakul A, Singhruck P. Long-term trends and variability of total and extreme precipitation in Thailand. Atmospheric Research 2016;169:301-17.

18. Limsakul A. Trends in Thailand’s extreme temperature indices during 1955-2018 and their relationship with global mean temperature change. Applied Environmental Research 2020; 42:94-107.

19. Miyan MA. Droughts in Asian least developed countries: Vulnerability and sustainability. Weather and Climate Extremes 2015;7:8-23.

20. Moss R, Edmonds J, Hibbard K, Manning M, Rose S, Vuuren D, et al. The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 2010;463:747-56.

21. Murphy J. An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. Journal of Climate 1999;12:2256-84.

22. Ngo‐Duc T, Tangang FT, Santisirisomboon J, Cruz F, Trinh‐Tuan L, Nguyen‐Xuan T, et al. Performance evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating extreme rainfall and temperature indices over the CORDEX‐Southeast Asia region. International Journal of Climatology 2017;37:1634-47.

23. Park JY, Kim SJ. Potential impacts of climate change on the reliability of water and hydropower supply from a multipurpose dam in South Korea. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2014;50:1273-88.

24. Raneesh J. Impact of climate change on water resources. Earth Science and Climatic Change 2014;5(3):1-5.

25. Rittima A. Reservoir Systems and Operation Planning. Bangkok, Thailand: Mittrapopkarnpim; 2018.

26. Sharma D, Babel MS. Application of downscaled precipitation for hydrological climate-change impact assessment in the upper Ping River Basin of Thailand. Climate Dynamics 2013; 41:2589-602.

27. Shiferaw B, Tesfaye K, Kassie M, Abate T, Prasanna BM, Menkir A. Managing vulnerability to drought and enhancing livelihood resilience in sub-Saharan Africa: Technological, institutional and policy options. Weather and Climate Extremes 2014;3:67-79.

28. Siam Commercial Bank. EIC evaluates that the 2020 drought could extend to June with severe impacts on sugarcane, off-season rice, and cassava [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2021 Jan 12]. Available from: https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/file/product /6660/fl65yywwln/EIC-Note_drought_EN_20200302 .pdf.

29. Sriwongsitanon N. The study of the flood conditions of the Upper Ping River Basin by an application of MIKE 11 model (part 1). Kasetsart Engineering Journal 1997;11:74-87 (in Thai).

30. Tangang F, Santisirisomboon J, Juneng L, Salimun E, Chung J, Supari S, et al. Projected future changes in mean precipitation over Thailand based on multi-model regional climate simulations of CORDEX Southeast Asia. International Journal of Climatology 2019;39:5413-36.

31. Thana-dachophol T, Teamsuwan V, Udomsap L, Wongsamut W, Chamnankaew U. An analysis of water management in 2020 drought conditions. Proceedings of the 13th THAICID national esymposium; 2020 Jul 31; Studio of Irrigation Development Institute, Bangkok: Thailand; 2020.

32. The World Bank. Thai flood 2011, Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction Planning. The World Bank; 2012.

33. You JY, Cai X. Hedging rule for reservoir operations: 1. A theoretical analysis. Water Researches Research 2008: 44:W01415.

34. Zolghadr-Asli B, Bozorg-Haddad O, Chu X. Effects of the uncertainties of climate change on the performance of hydropower systems. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2019;10.3:591-609.