Modeling Land-Use Transitions under Conflicting Conservation and Land Tax Policies in Bang Kachao, Thailand 10.32526/ennrj/24/20250311

Abstract

Bang Kachao Subdistrict faces a policy conflict between the 2019 conservation zoning regulation, which mandates at least 25% green cover, and the Land and Buildings Tax Act in 2019, which progressively increases idle land tax rates from 0.5% to 3% within three years. The rising tax burden has accelerated land conversion from vacant and forested plots to monoculture farms, threatening local ecosystem integrity. Using high-resolution drone imagery and high-resolution satellite imagery obtained from Google Earth Pro for the year 2005 and 2015, six land-use classes were mapped and projected to 2045. The model achieved an overall accuracy of 89.7% (Kappa = 0.86), forecasting a 14.1% decline in forest area (-0.144 km²), 15.9% agricultural net increase (+0.185 km²), and an increase in idle land from 0.031 km² to 0.094 km² over the 40-year period. Field surveys confirmed that landowners replaced nipa palm wetlands with eucalyptus plantations to qualify for tax exemptions. These results indicate that progressive taxation can undermine conservation policies. It is recommended that subdistrict governors establish Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with landowners to support nipa palm and native forest restoration through capped tax rates and integrated land-use zoning.