Effects of Climate Change on Streamflow of Upper Lam Nam Chi and Lam Saphung Subwatershed Using SWAT Model 10.32526/ennrj/24/20250322
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Abstract
The upper Lam Nam Chi and Lam Saphung subwatershed in Thailand is an area at risk of drought and water scarcity, with climate change having the potential to increase the severity of these problems. Therefore, this study evaluated streamflow and investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow in the research area, applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model under climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Streamflow data were used from two stations of the Royal Irrigation Department during 2012-2022 for model calibration, with model accuracy being analyzed using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and PBIAS. The findings showed that the average annual streamflow of the upper Lam Nam Chi and Lam Saphung Subwatershed during 2012-2022 was 856.40 million cubic meters. The highest discharge occurred in September and the lowest in January. There was a considerable increase in the predicted annual streamflow under the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the near-term (2041-2060), medium-term (2061-2080), and long-term (2081-2100). The highest streamflow occurred in July and August and the lowest in April and May. In particular, the estimated annual streamflow under the long-term scenario without adopting any measures or policies for GHG emission control (RCP8.5) was notably different, being more than 4 times higher than the current streamflow. In conclusion, climate change influenced the streamflow in this watershed, which could lead to severe flooding and water scarcity in this watershed in the future.
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