Climate Trend Analysis Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope Estimator Tests in Central Luzon, Philippines
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Abstract
The climatological factors of rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were analyzed to determine the climate trend over the last 41 years in Central Luzon, Philippines. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen's Slope Estimator (SSE) tests were utilized to the annual and monthly datasets from 1980 to 2021 in the seven synoptic weather stations across the region. The annual temperature exhibited a highly increasing trend in all the synoptic stations. The temperature significantly increased in the months of May, November, and December throughout the region. This trend suggests that Central Luzon will become warmer in the coming years. The relative humidity decreased annually in Central Luzon and in all months in Casiguran. The Baler Radar, Cabanatuan, and Iba stations experienced a downward trend in wind speed, while Casiguran exhibited an upward trend. The annual rainfall showed no significant increase or decrease, but an increasing trend in December in Casiguran and a decreasing trend in May in Cubi Point were observed. The climate trend analysis indicates that the region is facing climate change. These significant trends may lead to severe weather events such as droughts and heatwaves, which can negatively impact the agricultural sector. Further studies are necessary to investigate the causes of the increasing temperature trend and the decreasing relative humidity trend and their potential effects on the local and regional climate.
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