Forecasting the number of patients with air pollution-related diseases Health Region 9, Nakhon Ratchasima province

Abstract

The number of patients who monitor health effects from diseases caused by air pollution in Health Zone 9, Nakhon Ratchasima Province, increased from 344,919 people in 2021 to 452,387 in 2022, and in the first seven months of the year 2023, there were 292,798 reported cases. The full-year estimate could be as high as 501,939 cases. The 2021 and 2022 monthly data include both seasonal and trend components. A monthly patient count forecast based on data from the past two years can be used to plan appropriate patient services. Therefore, the method of decomposition, the multiplication model, will be used to compare the ratio-to-trend method and the ratio-to-moving average method. The results showed that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ratio-to-trend method was 12.89 percent, which is in the range of 10–20 percent. It is better used for forecasting than the ratio-to-moving average method. It is expected that there will be 420,382 patients throughout the year 2023. Model-based forecasting uses what has happened in the past to predict the future. But factors that will affect the number of patients include air pollution control measures, public relations, and taking care of themself. These factors play a part in causing the observed or actual values to differ from the predicted values of models that only use some of the data that has been used in the past.