The Study and Analysis of Causes and Preventive Guidelines for Fire Incidents in Plastic Pellet Factories by What If Analysis

Abstract

This research aims to investigate the factors contributing to fire incidents and to assess the risk level in a recycled plastic pellet manufacturing plant. Frequent fire occurrences in the past, each causing severe damage, highlight the necessity of conducting a systematic study using the What-If Analysis technique. This flexible qualitative method enables the identification of potential hazards even in the absence of prior incidents and facilitates risk prioritization through the development of a structured risk assessment. The analysis revealed six major risk factors: deteriorated machinery and lack of maintenance, operational errors by workers, unsafe storage of flammable materials, absence of documents for operating procedures, the nonstandard electrical system installation, and insufficient firefighting equipment and emergency-drill readiness. This study applied the What If Analysis technique to assess the risks in the recycled plastic pellet of a case study factory, involving a total of twenty-six events across twenty-one production steps. The results indicated that two events (7.69%) fell under Risk Level 4 (Unacceptable), all associated with the melting process. Additionally, eleven events (42.31%) were classified as Risk Level 3 (High Risk) and were found in shredding, high-speed washing, dewatering, hot air drying, plastic storage, and certain parts of the melting process. Meanwhile, thirteen events (50.00%) were categorized as Risk Level 2 (Acceptable with Control) and occurred in feeding, sorting, conveying, general washing, pellet cutting, and drying steps. The study results can lead to recommendations for developing an effective risk management plan for the factory. The outcomes of this study provide a practical guideline for systematically assessing fire risk for other recycled plastic pellet factories. Moreover, it can be applied to other industries with similar thermal and mechanical processes.