Spatiotemporal Change for Agricultural Distribution from Local Administrative to Provincial Scales-based Spatial Clustering Analysis

Abstract

Nowadays, agricultural diversities and productions in Thailand have high competition in all scales. Therefore, this paper would like to study spatiotemporal change for agricultural distribution of from municipal to provincial scales-based spatial clustering analysis in case study of Nakhon Ratchasima (NK) province, Thailand. In this methodology, we presented a GIS-based spatiotemporal analysis with ArcGIS program that was used for spatiotemporal analysis in land use and spatial clustering models (using cluster and outlier and hot spots analysis) of agricultural distribution. This study used land use data between 2007 and 2015 from Land Development Department (LDD) through reference of land use classification system. As results, overall of land use between 2007 and 2015 in both municipal (298.21 km²) and provincial (20,727.35 km²) scale, was found that agricultural land was the highest number (> 50%), mostly paddy fields. Agricultural change in all municipal areas in NK decreased from 2007 to 2015 (1.62 km² or 0.54%) while overall NK province increased (46.23 km² or 0.22%). For spatial clustering analysis, cluster and outlier results showed the difference of municipal (two groups: HH clusters and HL outliers) and provincial areas (four groups: two clusters (HH and LL) and two outliers: (HL and LH). Interesting, high-density of agricultural lands (HH clusters) was found as active paddy fields in both municipalities and province were seen in more nearby locations in 2015, located in north, south-eastern and middle-west areas. In hot spots-based Gi* analysis, hot-spot areas in both municipal and provincial areas in 2015 were more increased than 2007 that indicated highly agricultural area density. Moreover, we found that such density of agricultural area included diversity of agricultural classification based on 3^rd level of LDD classification system as same, i.e. ., sugarcane, corn, cassava, custard apple, pasture. Conversely, the decreased change of cold-spot areas in 2007 and 2015 was found that was paddy field, was happened in the south-eastern locations. Consequently, these obtained results will be able to support and contribute for national security policy 2015-2021, focuses on policy no. 12: strengthening energy and food security through adaptation or survival from climate change. Especially, in food security, it will response (1) to support the active participation of the private sector or social entrepreneurship organizations and (2) to contribute market access and agricultural value chains for smallholders.