Prediction Model of House Price in Chiang Mai Province
Pre-sale house price estimation has been a challenge for real estate developers, especially for emerging markets such as Chiang Mai. Therefore, this study calibrated and established a Hedonic Pricing Model to forecast the sales price of new houses from 125 residential development projects located in Chiang Mai, Thailand. In this study, a total of 22 variables were recorded, and the data were classified into 3 categories, which were location, physical attribute of the project and the nature of the house and land. The results showed 8 out of 22 variables were well incorporated in the model, and the Semi-Natural Logarithm form was determined as the most suitable model for predicting the pre-sale price at this target location. The asking price of a new detached housing project was found at 25.36% higher than other types of houses. Meanwhile, the newly-constructed house price was decreased by 9.98% if the project location was adjacent to or further away from the ring road, which was distant away from the Chiang Mai Metropolitan area. Furthermore, the house’s pre-sale price was dropped when the available number of units in the project was large. The outcomes of this study indicate the effectiveness of the developed model as a proficient tool for estimating the competitive price for newly built properties in Chiang Mai.
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