Investigation of impact of lead times on bullwhip effect in dual-supplier supply chain for first-order autoregressive process
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Abstract
At present, research studies on the increasing demand amplification, or the bullwhip effect (BW), under a dual-sourcing supply chain network are limited. In addition, no existing research clearly states whether and how order lead times influence the bullwhip effect under the dual-sourcing supply chain environment. This research thus investigates the impact of lead times on bullwhip effect in dual-supplier supply chain. The retailer's orders are divided between two suppliers. Both cases of equal and unequal lead times at the suppliers-retailer links are examined. In this research, a simulation approach is used to create the incoming demand process for the retailer according to first order autoregressive (AR(1)) model. Also, all members use the order-up-to inventory policy and the moving average forecasting technique. The findings indicate that an increase in lead times is not necessarily accompanied by an increase in the bullwhip effect.
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กิตติวัฒน์ สิริเกษมสุข, จารุวรรณ แก้วล้วน, และ จุฑามาศ เกษแก้ว, "การศึกษาพฤติกรรมของบลูวิปเอฟเฟคภายใต้การสั่งซื้อสินค้าจากสองแหล่งในโซ่อุปทาน โดยใช้เทคนิคการพยากรณ์แบบถัวเฉลี่ยเคลื่อนที่ (A study of the bullwhip effect phenomenon under a dual–supplier system by using the moving average forecasting