Effects on runoff under climate change and reforestation in Lam Dom Yai river basin, Thailand

Main Article Content

Udomsook Suracharttumrongrat
Krit Sriworamas


Presently, nearly all global regions including northeastern Thailand are expected to experience more frequent severe flood and drought hazards which are basically caused by human’s accelerated activities as well as inappropriate land use change (LUC) consequently resulting, green house gas (GHG) effects, global warming, and climate change (CC) respectively. Therefore, it is essential to study the effects of CC and LUC on runoff of Lom Dom Yai (LDY) river in Thailand and to suggest an appropriate adaptive measure to alleviate the effects. This study aims to (1) study effects of CC and LUC on future river flows of LDY basin covering 5,000 km2 which is located in the northeast of Thailand, by developing a climate-hydrologic model, and (2) apply and recommend land use management as an adaptive measure for alleviating CC effects on flows. The GIS-based  ARC –SWAT model was developed and applied using 78 years of future climatic data from MRI-GCM which were statistically downscaled with observed data. Additionally taking into account LUC, CA-Markov technique was adopted to simulate temporal and spatial pattern of land use in periodically periods as the model input. Results of the model development indicated model reliability. For the case study of the future with the selected CC scenario RCP 4.5, the 78-years mean annual flow of LDY would be increased approximately 6 percent more than the past mean annual flow. Furthermore, the future mean monthly flows and extreme daily flows would be significantly increased in September and October (wet season), and decreased in February and March (dry season) respectively. In addition, high flows would be deferred from September to October. Application of reforestation could be applied as one of adaptive measures to alleviate CC effects on flow regime in better balancing seasonal flow fluctuation by decreasing wet season high monthly flows and mean daily flood peak, whereas increasing most of dry season mean monthly flows.

Article Details

บทความวิจัย (Research Article)


Babak F, Anil G, Saman R, Monireh F, Danielle J M. An integrated modeling system to predict hydrological processes under climate and land-use/cover change scenarios. Water. 2017; 9: 767. Available from:


Chaowiwat W. Adoptation of Reservoir Operation to Climate Change Conditions: Sirikit Dam, Thailand. 2013.

Chem H, Fleskens L, Baartman J, Wang F, Moolenaar S, Ritsema C. Impacts of land use change and climate effects on streamflow in the Chinese Loess Plateau A meta-analysis. Science of The Environment. 2020; Vol 703: 134989.

Cheng C S, Q Li, Auld H. Statistical downscaling of hourly and daily climate scenarios for various meteorological variables in South-central Canada. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2008;91: 129-147

David, Neeli J. Climate Change and Climate Modeling. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data. 2011. Available From: http://WWW.cambridge.org/9780521841573

Farinosi F, Arias E M, Lee E, Longo M, Pereira F F, Livino A, Moorcroft R P, Briscoe J. (2019). Future Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on River Flows in the Tapajos Basin in the Brazilian Amazon. Earth's Future. 2019; Vol.7(8).

Jones R G, et al. Generating High Resolution Climate Change Scenarios Using PRECIS. Report, Met Office Hadley Centre. 2011.

Kiplagat K D, Kollongei K, Kiptum K. Modelling the Impacts of land Use Change on Stream Flow in the Kimwarer Catchment Using Swat. American Journal of water Science and Engineering. 2018; Vol 4(4): 107-116 ISSN: 2575-1875

kushwaha A, Jain K M. Hydrological Simulation in a Forest Dominated Watershed in Himalayan Region using SWAT Model. Water Recour Manage. 2013; 27: 3005–3023. Available from: https://doi/ 10.1007/s11269-013-0329-9

Kubah S, Jain M. Rainfall-Runoff Modeling of a River Basin using SWAT Model. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology (IJERT). 2017; Vol 6 (12).

Lingling S, Chao Z, Jianyu Y, et.al. Simulation of Land Use Spatial Pattern of Towns and Villages Base on CA-Markov Model. 2011; 54: 938-943.

Long P H, Hannu L, Matti K, Jorma K, Michelle T H v V, Iwan S, Rik L, Pavel K, Fulco L. (2016). Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2016;20(7): 3027-3041. Available from: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016

Moriasi D N, Gitau M W, Pa N, Dagupati P. Hydrologic and water quality models: Performance measures and evaluation criteria, American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers. 2015; Vol.58(6): 1763-1785.

Nguyen T H, Le H T, Vo N Q T, Duong N M, Nguyen D L, Nguyen K L. (2017). Assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Srepok watershed, Central Highland of Vietnam. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2017;8(3): 524-534. Available from https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2017.135

Rodrigues L E, Elmiro A T M, Braga A F, Jacobi M C, Rossi D R. Impact of change in land use in the flow of the Para' River Basin, MG. Scielo. 2015; Vol.19(1).

Seonhui N, Mikyoung C, Kwansue J, Jinhyeog P. Prospect of discharge at Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed under future greenhouse gas scenarios using SWAT Model. Engineering Journal. 2019;23(6). Available from:


Shrestha M, Shrestha S, Datta, Avishek. Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion from the Bago River to the Moeyingyi Wetland, Myanmar. Current Science. 2017;12(2): 377-384.

Sriworamas K, Prasanchum H, Supakosol J. The effect of forest rehabilitation on runoff and hydrological factors in the upstream area of the Ubonratana Reservoir in Thailand. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2019;039. Available from:


Tan L M, Gaaman W P, Srinivasan R, Arnold G J, Yang Y X. A Review of SWAT Studies in Southeast Asia: Applications, Challenges and Future Directions. Water. 2019; 11(5): 914. Available from: https://DOI:10.3390/w11050914

Wuthiwongyothin S, Su H J, Ishidakei K, Levent K M. The effect of climate change on hydrology based dynamically downscaling and physically downscaling and physically-based hydrology model at Upper Ping river basin, Thailand. Internet Journal of Society for Social Management Systems. 2017;11(1).

Yang L, Feng Q, Yin Z, Deo C R, Wen X, Si J, Li C. Separation of the Climate and Land Cover Impacts on the Flow Regime Changes in Two Watersheds of Northeastern Tibatan Plateau. Hindawi Journals. 2017;Vol.2017. Available from:


Zhengxiang Y, Xiuling M, Liangliang D, Tijiu C. Assessments of impacts of climate and forest change on water resources using SWAT model in a Subboreal watershed in northern Da Hinggan Mountains. Water. 2020;12(6): 1565. Available from: