Effects on runoff under climate change and reforestation in Lam Dom Yai river basin, Thailand
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Abstract
Presently, nearly all global regions including northeastern Thailand are expected to experience more frequent severe flood and drought hazards which are basically caused by human’s accelerated activities as well as inappropriate land use change (LUC) consequently resulting, green house gas (GHG) effects, global warming, and climate change (CC) respectively. Therefore, it is essential to study the effects of CC and LUC on runoff of Lom Dom Yai (LDY) river in Thailand and to suggest an appropriate adaptive measure to alleviate the effects. This study aims to (1) study effects of CC and LUC on future river flows of LDY basin covering 5,000 km2 which is located in the northeast of Thailand, by developing a climate-hydrologic model, and (2) apply and recommend land use management as an adaptive measure for alleviating CC effects on flows. The GIS-based ARC –SWAT model was developed and applied using 78 years of future climatic data from MRI-GCM which were statistically downscaled with observed data. Additionally taking into account LUC, CA-Markov technique was adopted to simulate temporal and spatial pattern of land use in periodically periods as the model input. Results of the model development indicated model reliability. For the case study of the future with the selected CC scenario RCP 4.5, the 78-years mean annual flow of LDY would be increased approximately 6 percent more than the past mean annual flow. Furthermore, the future mean monthly flows and extreme daily flows would be significantly increased in September and October (wet season), and decreased in February and March (dry season) respectively. In addition, high flows would be deferred from September to October. Application of reforestation could be applied as one of adaptive measures to alleviate CC effects on flow regime in better balancing seasonal flow fluctuation by decreasing wet season high monthly flows and mean daily flood peak, whereas increasing most of dry season mean monthly flows.
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References
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