Application of Macroscopic Mathematical Models to Predict and Evaluate the Road Deaths Rates in Thailand

Abstract

In this research, two macroscopic-mathematical models namely, the Smeed model and the Koren & Borsos model, are applied to predict road deaths per 100,000 population (D/P) and to evaluate the general performances of the implementation of various road safety measures in Thailand compared to the national road safety targets. While the Smeed model is adopted to illustrate that the D/N values will decrease, as the vehicle occupancy rates increase, the Koren & Borsos model is also used to model the relationship between the D/P values and the vehicle occupancy rates as an inverted U-shaped curve. It was found that at the national level of Thailand, the D/P values tended to decrease as the vehicle ownership rates increased. For the Koren & Borsos model, this findings indicated that at the current situation, Thailand has already passed the turning point (the maximum D/P value). Importantly, Thailand sill cannot achieve the national road safety targets. At the provincial level of Thailand, the relationship between the D/P values and the vehicle occupancy rates is as an inverted U-shaped curve. However, the reliability of such relationship is relatively low. The trend of the D/P changes of each province is uniquely distinct over time (years). These circumstances can cause problems and obstacles in setting the road safety targets of each province to be consistent with and lead to achieve the national road safety targets of Thailand in the future.