Exploring the Relationship between Climate Parameters and Water Salinity Fluctuations: A Case Study in Binh Chanh District, Ho Chi Minh City 10.32526/ennrj/24/20250083
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Abstract
Climate change is expected to worsen drought conditions, which may elevate the risk of salinity intrusion in many regions of Vietnam. Therefore, this research analyzed the annual variations in water salinity in Binh Chanh District by employing the Modified Innovative Trend Analysis method, which interprets not only specific trends but also avoids distributional assumptions found in classical approaches, including normality, independence, and pre-whitening. Additionally, the study proposed a Sobol Index to investigate the relationship between salinity levels and weather variables from 2007 to 2024. The findings indicated a notable increase in annual salinity, reaching up to 8.12% at the Ong Thin station. In contrast, a significant decrease of less than 2% was noted, primarily at the Cong Kenh C station. While An Ha recorded a significant sensitivity value for mean temperature at 56.5%, salinity levels at the Cong Kenh C and Ong Thin stations were highly responsive to precipitation, accounting for over 77.2% and 69.6% of sensitivity, respectively. These findings enhance the understanding of salinity trends and provide a robust scientific basis for informing policy interventions related to land and water resource management, agricultural planning, and estuarine environmental governance in Binh Chanh District under accelerating climate change.
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