The Study of Forecasting Models and Appropriate Inventory Management Case Study: Carton Packaging

Abstract

The objectives of this research were to examine forecasting model and to offered inventory
management for appropriate storage volume.
In this research, 160 carton packaging were explored and classified using ABS Analysis as follow;
Group A 22 items, Group B 58 items, and Group C 80 items. Then, two items of Group A was chosen because of the cumulative graph of shortage inventory analysis and the over demand storage. The future demand for a period of above items were forecasted by five methods, which 1) Simple Moving Average 2) Weighted Moving Average 3) Simple Exponential Smoothing 4) Winter’s Linear and Seasonal Exponential and 5) Decomposition. Then, selected the most appropriate method by forecast error considering. Finally, forecasted results were calculated Economic Order Quantity: EOQ and Cost also safety stock at service level at 80 percent and 90 percent.
The finding pointed out, the most appropriated forecasting method for 559058-000
BX,PP,21KV,H200 W105 L380 was Simple Moving Average (t=5), EOQ was 4,514 units per order and ordering cost 41,052.57 baht per order. For 559020-014QBX,PP,CARTON,60 x 40 x 27 cm. the most appropriate was Winter’s Linear and Seasonal Exponential (∞= 1.00, =0.04,  =0.00), EOQ = 1,010 units per order and ordering cost 30,212.59 baht per order was cost. Inventory management cost of both at service Level 80 percent and 90 percent were 4,376 baht per year and 6,644 baht/year that reduced from 23,500 baht per year accounted 81.38 percent and 71.73 percent respectively.