Mathematical Model for Forecasting the Number of Aging Societies in Pathum Thani Province
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Abstract
The purpose of this research was to construct the mathematical model for forecasting the number of aging societies in Pathum Thani province. The data was collected from the Bureau of Registration Administration, Department of Provincial Administration from 1993 to 2022, 30 values, divided into two sets. The first set from 1993 to 2017, 25 values were used for the modeling by double moving average method, Simple exponential smoothing method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method and Box-Jenkins method. The second set from 2018 to 2022, 5 values were used for checking the accuracy of the forecasting models via the determination of the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results found that Brown’s exponential smoothing method was the most appropriate method (MAPE = 7.933, RMSE = 1,318.879). In terms of forecasting methods, the mathematical model for forecasting the number of aging societies in Pathum Thani province was .
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References
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