Gold Price Forecasting in Thailand using a Neural Network Model
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The purpose of this research was to create a gold price model in Thailand using an artificial neural network model under the creation of models using the CRISP-DM process, to study Factors affecting the price of gold in Thailand. Factors affecting the price of gold in Thailand were studied, to explain factors affecting the price of gold in Thailand, which has taken factors from research studies used to create a model for gold prices in Thailand, including Oil prices in the world market. Exchange rate of the baht to the United States dollar. The highest 3-month fixed deposit interest rate of commercial banks in Thailand. Inflation rate in Thailand. Thailand Consumer Confidence Index Value of imported gold bars from Thailand. Value of Thailand's successful gold exports and the Stock Exchange of Thailand stock index. Results of measuring the performance of gold price forecasting in Thailand, using two artificial neural network models. The results of the experiment found that the Model-1 model has a network architecture of 8 input layers, 4 hidden layers, and 1 node output layer by running the neural network model for 500 rounds by dividing the data into groups. A small batch size of 32, with a ratio of 90 percent modeling data and 10 percent testing, gave the best forecasting performance with a MAPE value of 8.04.
Article Details
References
Anusornteerakul, P. (2009). Thailand’s Gold Price Forecast Neural Network. Master of Science Thesis in Information Technology, Graduate School, Khon Kaen University.
Apirakdachachai, S. (2010). Factors Influencing Glod Bar Prices in Thailand. Master of Economics Graduate School, Ramkhamhaeng University.
Pa-im, K. (2012). Torque Control of Auto-Screwdriver Machine by Neural Network. Mater of Engineering (Mechanical Engineering), Major Field: Mechanical Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering.
Panthong, A. (2019) An Efficiency Comparison of the Quality of Missing Data Treatment Methods under MNRA for Estimation of Polytomous Scored Items Parameters. Faculty of Science and Technology, Nakhon Sawan Rajabhat University.
Somjit, P. (2009). Factors Affecting the Glod Price in Thailand. Master of Administration Program of Entrepreneurship Graduate School, Silpakorn University.
Teerasan, S. (2010). An Analysis of Economic Factors Affecting Glod Price in Thanland. Master of Economics (Business Economics), Major Field: Business Economics, Department of Economics. Graduate School, Kasetsart University.
Ungprasert, Y. (2010). Forecasting for Glod Price by External Factors that using Covariance Matrix Method. Master of Engineering Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Graduate School, Silpakorn University.