THE OPTIMIZATION OF FORECASTING METHOD FOR SELECTION OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

Abstract

          Decision support system (DSS) for proper forecasting method selection was developed to support decision making about selecting appropriate forecasting method with constant data. The solver module in Microsoft Excel was used to find optimal solution of the forecast under minimal mean squared error objective. The forecasting methods used in this system are moving average method, weighted moving average method and exponential smoothing method. The result of this system will show forecasting result and forecasting discrepancy value. Efficiency evaluation was shown that DSS can be used well for making decision about selecting forecasting method with less computation time. The result of efficiency evaluation is 4.19 which is at high-level.