Development of octave-based reliability analysis software for civil engineering using Monte Carlo simulation
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Abstract
This paper presents the development of ORA-CE (Octave-Based Reliability Analysis for Civil Engineering), a software tool designed to evaluate the reliability of civil engineering problems using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) based on defined performance functions. The software operates through an integrated workflow between Microsoft Excel and GNU Octave. Microsoft Excel serves as the front-end interface for user inputs—including user-defined complex performance functions, random variables, probability distribution types, and total simulation sample sizes—which are subsequently transmitted to GNU Octave, an open-source, license-free platform, for computational reliability analysis. To validate ORA-CE, benchmark case studies from the published literature were evaluated. The validation process initially involved a convergence study of the failure probability to determine an optimal sample size. A quantitative statistical error analysis was then conducted to confirm that the selected sample size yields stable and reliable statistical estimates. Subsequently, the reliability results obtained using the determined sample size were compared against reference values. The calculated failure probabilities yielded relative errors ranging from 0.88% to 2.03%, demonstrating excellent numerical agreement with the literature. Furthermore, these comparative findings confirm the validity of the core script architecture and the random variable generation utilizing built-in statistical functions in GNU Octave. Overall, ORA-CE proves to be an efficient, convenient, and cost-effective alternative tool for structural safety assessment in civil engineering without software licensing burdens.
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