Forecast the Number of Unemployed in Thailand Classified by Education Level using Differential Equation Model

Abstract

The purpose of this study were 1) to construct the appropriate model forecasting for the number of unemployed in Thailand classified by education level using differential equation model , the primary and lower education, junior high school, senior high school, vocational certificate, high vocational certificate and higher education, and 2) Predict the number of unemployed people in Thailand classified by education in the future using information from the website of the National Statistical Office from 2001 to 2017, totally 17 values. Is divided into 2 sets, set 1  is data from year 2001 to year 2016, 16 values for creating differential equations to predict the number of unemployed in Thailand check the relationship between the differential equation model and the real value and the suitability of the forecasting model with the correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R²) coefficient of improvement decision (R² - Adjusted), estimation of standard error of regression equation and analysis of the recession, respectively. Set 2 had 5 values from 2013 to 2017 for comparing accuracy of the forecasts via criteria of the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

The research found that

1. Differential equation model for forecasting the number of unemployed by qualification achieved in Thailand

Primary and lower education is  
Junior high school is  
Senior high school is  
Vocational certificate is  
High vocational certificate is 
Higher education is 

2. Number of unemployed graduates’ primary and lower education have a tendency to decrease but the unemployed graduates junior high school graduation, senior high school graduation, vocational certificate graduation, high vocational certificate graduation and higher education graduation upward trend.