An Analysis of Contributing Factors Leading to Dropouts in Tanzania Government Secondary Schools Using Multiple Regression and Factor Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of student dropout in Tanzanian government secondary schools over the period 2020–2024. Specifically, it analyzes the intensity and interaction of socio-economic, school-based, and individual factors influencing dropout across regions. The study utilizes secondary data obtained from the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MoEST) and the President’s Office – Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG). A combination of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and multiple linear regression was employed to identify key underlying dimensions and quantify the effects of explanatory variables on dropout rates. The findings reveal that truancy, poverty, student deaths, and indiscipline are the most significant predictors of dropout, with truancy consistently exhibiting the strongest influence across models. Factor analysis identified four latent dimensions health and behavioral risks, environmental and social exposure, transport and care burden, and institutional supervision deficit which collectively explain the multidimensional nature of dropout. The regression model demonstrates substantial explanatory power, accounting for over 56% of the variation in regional dropout rates. The study concludes that student dropout in Tanzania is driven by the combined effects of socio-economic, institutional, and individual-level factors rather than isolated influences. It recommends the implementation of targeted, region-specific, and multi-sectoral interventions to effectively address the dropout challenge and support progress toward achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4 on inclusive and equitable quality education.