A COMPARATIVE PREDICTION ACCURACY OF BIRTH NUMBER OF THE POPULATION PATHUM THANI PROVINCE

Abstract

This research is aimed to compare the prediction accuracy of forecasting model for the birth number of the population Pathum Thani Province. The data gathered from the website of Registration system - Office of Registration Administration, Department of Local Administration during year 1993 to the year 2019 of 27 values which were used and separated into 2 groups. The first group contained 24 values from year 1993 to the year 2016 for comparing and searching for forecasting models. There were forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Damped trend exponential smoothing method and Brown’s exponential smoothing method. The second set had 3 values from year 2017 to the year 2019 for comparing and finding the most suitable forecasting method via criteria of the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The result indicated Brown’s exponential smoothing method was the best method. This research is aimed to compare the prediction accuracy of forecasting model for the birth number of the population Pathum Thani Province. The data gathered from the website of Registration system - Office of Registration Administration, Department of Local Administration during year 1993 to the year 2019 of 27 values which were used and separated into 2 groups. The first group contained 24 values from year 1993 to the year 2016 for comparing and searching for forecasting models. There were forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Damped trend exponential smoothing method and Brown’s exponential smoothing method. The second set had 3 values from year 2017 to the year 2019 for comparing and finding the most suitable forecasting method via criteria of the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The result indicated Brown’s exponential smoothing method was the best method.