APPLICATION OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS TO FORECAST CROSSBRED SWINE PRICE IN THAILAND
Keywords:
Crossbred swine price, Forecasting, Winter’s method, Combined forecastingAbstract
The aim of the study was to develop forecasting model for crossbred swine price in Thailand. The results can be database in production planning to correspond with variation of swine price. The data was collected from Office of Agricultural Economics over consecutive months from the period January 2008 – December 2019. There are three forecasting models considering to be fitted with the data such as Winter’s additive exponential smoothing method, Box-Jenkins method and combined forecasting method. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to compare accuracy of model. The result showed that the most appropriated model was combined forecasting method. The forecasting values in January to December 2020-2021 from this model showed that the highest crossbred swine price would be in May to August period (67.06-68.47 baht per kilogram) and the lowest crossbred swine price would be in December to January period (60.47-60.80 baht per kilogram). Farmers can apply these forecasts for planning in swine production in accordance to low and high price period.
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