A COMPARISON OF FORECASTING METHODS FOR PREDICTING THE GOLD ORNAMENTS SELLING PRICE

Authors

  • Warangkhana Riansut Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, Thaksin University, Phatthalung Campus.

Keywords:

Gold Ornaments, Box-Jenkins, Holt, Brown, Damped

Abstract

This study aims to compare the methods for forecasting the gold ornaments selling price between the Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s method, Brown’s method, and the damped trend method. The average monthly gold ornaments selling prices used to create the model were obtained from the Gold Traders Association from January 2012 to May 2022. For the comparison of the reliability of the forecasting methods, the minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) criterion was used. The results of comparing the forecast value with the gold ornaments selling prices from June to November 2022 found that the Box-Jenkins method had the lowest error. The forecast model was as follows: gif.latex?\hat{Y}t  = Yt-1 + 0.33963et-1 where Yt-1 represented the gold ornaments selling price at time t – 1 and et-1 represented the error at time t – 1.

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References

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Published

2024-04-30

How to Cite

Riansut, W. (2024). A COMPARISON OF FORECASTING METHODS FOR PREDICTING THE GOLD ORNAMENTS SELLING PRICE. Srinakharinwirot University Journal of Sciences and Technology, 16(31, January-June), 1–10, Article 253646. retrieved from https://ph02.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/swujournal/article/view/253646

Issue

Vol. 16 No. 31, January-June (2024): Srinakharinwirot University Journal of Sciences and Technology

Section

บทความวิจัย

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