Forecasting of Wind Speed Using Advanced Research-WRF Model
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Abstract
This study presents the mesoscale forecasting of wind speed of Thailand using an advanced research-Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) modeling system. Numerical simulations were carried out for 12 days, with a single modeling domain with a horizontal grid resolution of 9 km centering at Sap Yai district in Chaiyaphum province and Pak Phanang district Nakhon Si Thammarat province by applying initial and boundary conditions provided by FNL (FNL Reanalysis) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The case study for the ARW event used the WSM3 scheme for microphysics, Dudhia and RRTM scheme for short-long wave radiation, unified Noah LSM for Noah land surface scheme and YSU scheme for PBL processes. Wind predictions are obtained and compared with real observed data from a mast tower at height of 117.5 m and 120 m above ground level at Sap Yai and Pak Phanang districts respectively. Wind speed prediction was done based on two distinct periods, the first one was during 20-31 December 2017 on Sap Yai district and the second one was during 20-31 May 2012 on Pak Phanang district. Results showed that the Weibull parameters, i.e., k and A based on observed data was 3.58 and 7.63 while obtained from the prediction was 3.61 and 11.20 at Sap Yai district in Chaiyaphum province. For Pak Phanang district, they were found to be 3.09 and 6.91 and 2.79 and 8.87. The statistical error analysis of Sap Yai showed that the value of MAD was percentage 3.43, 2.96, MSE was 13.65, 14.06, RMSE was 3.69, 3.75 and MAPE was 54.05, 83.95 respectively.
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