Impacts of Climate Change and Regional Variations on Future Rainfall Patterns in Thailand by Downscaling Method
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Abstract
In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns in Thailand using the downscaling method. The simulation data was obtained from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, using the Community Earth System Model (CCSM) as a boundary condition. The characteristics of rainfall were analyzed in terms of the total annual rainfall, rainfall intensity, the number of days with heavy rain, and the total amount of rainfall in each season in the future compared to the base periods. It was found that the simulation of the climate in upper Thailand was consistent with the reanalysis values, with TCC ranging from 0.6 to 0.9. The simulated annual rainfall amount is underestimated throughout the country. There are indications that rainfall will increase in average and extreme terms in some regions, including the eastern region of the Northeast, the western side of the North, and the upper part of the West. In the southern part of the country, the overall rainfall indices are expected to decrease with low confidence in almost the entire region.
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