A Comparison of Forecasting the Egg Prices between Box-Jenkins Method and Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to compare two forecasting methods which are Box-Jenkins method and Holt’s exponential smoothing method for predicting the egg prices. Time series that used is the monthly data from the website of Office of Agricultural Economics during January 2001 to August 2013 (152 values). The data are split into two sets, the first 140 values from January 2001 until August 2012 for the modeling and the last 12 values from September 2012 until August 2013 for finding the most suitable forecasting method by the criterion of the lowest mean absolute percentage error. The results show that Holt’s exponential smoothing method is suitable for this time series than Box-Jenkins method which the forecasting model is Ŷ_t+m=3.209995+0.010026 (m) where m represents the number of months to forecast ahead with the starting value of September 2013 (m = 1).