แบบจำลองการประเมินคุณภาพของมะม่วงไทยด้วยวิธีมอนติคาร์โล (ส่วนที่ 1)

Abstract

Mango is considered as one of the Thailand’s major exporting fruits, achieving its massive export volume in foreign markets with different levels of purchasing power. Thailand is reportedly ranked the third for the world’s largest mango exporter. Also, there are many factors that decrease the competitiveness of the Thai mango including lack of production consistency, inferior production management, excessive production cost, and the soaring selling prices. In consequence, a large number of consumers decided to purchase mangoes from other business competitors. Admittedly, significant factors that influence the consumer’s buying decision are the information of product quality, reasonable price, desirable taste and appearance. In order to solve the mentioned problems, it is necessary to study the quality assessment of Thai Mangoes related to the entire supply chain management from upstream to downstream. According to the study, the quality assessment of Thai Mangoes using Monte Carlo Simulation at the temperature of    13 ^oC throughout every stage of the storage, from harvesting to distributing the mangoes to the consumers, assure the quality level of the mangoes which benefits for the business decision making process or the quality management of Thai Mangoes. There are three significant factors that influence the quality level comprising total soluble solid, titratable acidity, and firmness. However, the quality level can be divided into four levels which are unripe, half-ripe, ripe and over-ripe. So, the data were modeled the quality index assessment of Thai Mangoes at the temperature of 13 ^oC, during storage time from 1-45 days with maximum likelihood estimation and statistical test. The result showed that the model had mean square error at 0.6876 ± 0.0449 and coefficient of determination (R²) is 0.8881 ± 0.0076 show that the model of quality index assessment is appropriate and corresponds to the actual data at an acceptable level.